The US government has 鈥渉igh confidence鈥� that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons (CW). In an apparent policy shift, it says it will now provide military support to Syrian rebels. The decision follows the finding of a breakdown product of the nerve gas sarin in urine samples from Syria.
鈥淭he Assad regime has used chemical weapons, including the nerve agent sarin, on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year,鈥� released yesterday. At least 100 to 150 people were killed as a consequence, it said.
Although that accounts for only a small fraction of the 90,000-plus deaths in the Syrian conflict so far, the statement said 鈥渢he use of chemical weapons violates international norms and crosses clear red lines that have existed within the international community for decades鈥�. Since last August, US President Barack Obama has said CW would 鈥渃hange his calculus鈥� on US involvement in Syria.
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That has now happened: the statement promises more 鈥渘on-lethal assistance鈥� for the rebels 鈥� which could include medical and communications equipment, for example 鈥� and 鈥渄irect support鈥� for their Supreme Military Council.
鈥淭hat includes military support,鈥� US Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes . This was not mentioned in the statement.
The US government declared in April that it suspected Syria had used CW, based partly on 鈥減hysiological samples鈥� from injured rebels. Since then, more samples have come to light.
Positive test
Last week, that two urine samples they smuggled out of Syria had been tested by the south of Paris and found to contain isopropyl methylphosphonic acid.
That is sarin with a fluoride ion removed by chemical breakdown in the body, says at the University of Leeds, UK, a leading CW expert. 鈥淚t can only come from sarin.鈥� Blood and urine retain traces of sarin exposure for up to six weeks, he says.
Moreover, Le Monde said blood samples smuggled by 鈥渙ther channels鈥� from a battle at Saraqeb in northern Syria, where munitions and injuries , contained 9.5 nanograms of sarin itself per millilitre. French and British officials declared last week they believed Syria had used sarin.
Such results do not indicate who released the sarin, notes the US statement, repeating calls for UN verification inside Syria. The statement said it had 鈥渘o reliable, corroborated鈥� evidence that the rebels had CW, however, and did have reports of 鈥淪yrian officials planning and executing regime chemical weapons attacks鈥�.
Small-scale use
It also said reports of symptoms in Syria were consistent with sarin exposure. CW experts have been dubious about this. , with few people affected, mixed symptoms and no contamination of unprotected carers.
Now it seems possible that small amounts of sarin may have been used, perhaps alongside other CW, to create just such uncertainty. The French lab did not test for other agents such as tear gas.
鈥淭he estimated 100 to 150 fatalities would indicate very small-scale use,鈥� says Richard Guthrie, a CW expert formerly with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden. It is not clear, he says, why commanders would risk global censure in return for the uncertain military advantage that small amounts of sarin might give them. Release could have been accidental or not approved by Damascus 鈥� or attackers might have used sarin alongside other agents. 鈥淭hat would provide a confusing situation,鈥� says Guthrie, making it hard to prove CW use.
鈥淭he lack of bodies could be due to a whole range of factors such as the quantity used, number of people, [location of] buildings and wind direction,鈥� cautions Hay. 鈥淓ven if only 50 per cent pure, sarin is so potent that you are still going to get some effect.鈥�
The White House statement says the US is 鈥渨orking with allies to present a credible, evidentiary case to share with the international community and the public鈥�.
