A REVOLUTION is upon us. People around the world, from urban New York to rugged Bhutan, have started to notice real changes in their environment. As ever, it is hard to pin such local shifts on global climate change, but they are often consistent with the projections of computer models.
Those on the front lines are not waiting for definitive proof of cause and effect. Researchers at the United Nations University have found that communities in nine vulnerable countries are already responding: adopting new crop varieties, modifying irrigation systems and rebuilding sea walls (see 鈥�Early climate adapters show warming world how to cope鈥�).
Should the world follow their lead? As responses to climate change scale up, questions of cost and culpability will come to the fore. We have already seen wrangling over the bills for protective works in the wake of UK storms, and climate change lawsuits have already been filed.
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These disputes will not be easily settled, because attributing today鈥檚 events to yesterday鈥檚 greenhouse gas emissions is a complicated business. Tomorrow鈥檚 threat is equally hard to pin down: we expect greater variability, but we don鈥檛 know, say, how many more hurricanes will hit the eastern US.
This uncertainty is tacitly acknowledged in the wording of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change鈥檚 latest report, which is cautious about the local effects of climate change. But it is upfront in saying we should not wait for this uncertainty to be ironed out: rather, it suggests we should strive to make our societies resilient, able to bounce back from disruption.
We haven鈥檛 waited for perfect economic models to enact financial reforms; we vaccinate even though models of flu epidemics aren鈥檛 ideal. Likewise, climate models provide us with information about levels of risk, not certainties. We can use this to decide whether, and when, to act. Those on the front lines have already made up their minds 鈥� but soon we鈥檒l all be on the front lines. It鈥檚 high time we took action.
鈥淭hose on the front lines of climate change have already made up their minds they need to act鈥�
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淩esistance is not futile鈥�
