AT THE headquarters of the Mara Elephant Project, Marc Goss contemplates a jumble of squiggly lines superimposed on a Google Earth map. Each line represents the recent movements of a GPS-collared elephant in the Maasai Mara National Reserve in Kenya. Generally, the animals move too slowly to notice.
Occasionally, however, Goss sees what he calls 鈥渁 streak鈥� 鈥� when one of the lines suddenly lurches forward. It means the animal is being chased by poachers. If the streak stops cold, Goss surmises that another elephant has just been killed.
An unsustainable four elephants are killed in Africa every hour for the ivory in their tusks. But while impoverished locals are enlisted to pull the triggers, it is highly organised transnational crime syndicates and militias that run the poaching and reap the lion鈥檚 share of the profits, fuelling terrorism and increasingly war.
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That鈥檚 the conclusion of by the conservation group Born Free USA and , a non-profit organisation that conducts data-driven analysis of security and conflict issues.
, a senior analyst at C4ADS and one of the authors of the report, says it is the first study to look at the problem through the lens of conflict and national security rather than conservation. The report, titled Ivory鈥檚 Curse, draws on publicly available government data, news reports and interviews with government officials and conservationists.
It paints a bleak picture of a slaughter which is disastrous not just for elephants, but for the stability of African nations, and claims that blood money from ivory has helped to bankroll almost every conflict in Africa in recent decades. 鈥淭he modern ivory trade was built on war,鈥� says Vira.
聯Blood money from ivory has helped to bankroll virtually every conflict in recent decades聰
In 2013, roughly 400 tonnes of ivory was trafficked, representing the tusks of 50,000 elephants 鈥� a billion dollar a year business. The price of ivory in China, which is by far the largest market, has sky-rocketed from $6 a kilo in 1976 to $3000 today 鈥� far more than most Africans earn in a year (see diagram).
The report identified seven regions where conflict and ivory trade are deeply connected, and shows that much of the poaching takes place across borders (see map). For instance, the report builds on previous findings that Somali terror group al-Shabaab funds itself with money from tusks poached in northern Kenya, adding that the ongoing civil war in the Central African Republic (CAR) is being partly funded by ivory. Meanwhile, Nigeria鈥檚 Boko Haram is targeting elephants in Cameroon.
In Sudan, government-allied militias complicit in the Darfur genocide fund their operations by poaching elephants in Chad, Cameroon, the CAR and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo. South Sudan, which boasted 130,000 elephants 25 years ago, is down to just 5000 animals today due to poaching by both sides in the recent conflict.
Some populations have been hit particularly hard and may never recover. The report predicts that African forest elephants could become extinct in the Congo basin within two decades. In addition to political instability, much of the blame lies with the proliferation of Chinese mining and timber operations in the area. These build roads through the rainforest that give poachers access to previously remote areas.
There are a few bright spots. Relatively wealthy Namibia and South Africa have so far kept elephant poaching largely in check through political stability, aggressive patrolling and community-based conservation. Remoteness also helps. Elephant numbers in sparsely populated Botswana are at an all-time high.
Elephants in east Africa are facing what , zoologist and founder of Save the Elephants, calls 鈥渁 crisis but not yet a catastrophe鈥�. Elephants are 鈥渁mazingly resilient creatures鈥�, he says, and in regions where up to half of their deaths are caused by humans, the animals can still manage to maintain healthy communities. But when that number rises above 50 per cent 鈥� as has happened in much of Africa 鈥� reproduction rates can鈥檛 replace the losses, and the species spirals into decline.
The more successful countries shouldn鈥檛 rest on their laurels, Vira says. One way to tackle the problem in future is to predict the next poaching hotspots. The report鈥檚 authors have developed an index that includes factors such as corruption and arms availability to predict at-risk reserves. As elephant numbers in central Africa decline, poaching is spreading, mainly to the south and east.
鈥淛ust looking at the diminishing numbers elsewhere in Africa and the economics of the trade, poaching has to eventually shift to southern Africa where 50 per cent of the elephants are today,鈥� Vira says.
The hotspots for poaching are already shifting. Until a decade ago, the Selous Game Reserve in Tanzania boasted the largest concentration of pachyderms on Earth. But two-thirds of its elephants were killed between 2009 and 2013. The report alleges that poachers are being abetted by senior officials in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism.
The report endorses data-driven methods, like Goss鈥檚 live GPS mapping, to maximise the efficiency of gamekeeper patrols.
It also suggests that African governments should ramp up efforts to intercept ivory as it travels through the supply chain. Disrupting distribution networks can make the trade costlier and more risky for all those involved.
But even the best policing in Africa will fall short if demand for ivory remains high. A separate report will focus on the ivory trade in Asia. And Douglas-Hamilton is already working with China鈥檚 celebrities to convince young people that owning ivory trinkets isn鈥檛 cool. However, changing cultural values takes time 鈥� time Africa鈥檚 elephants may not have.
Leader: 鈥�How wildlife crime links us all to conflicts in Africa鈥�
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淚vory feeds Africa鈥檚 wars鈥�
