It sounds bold and ambitious. European Union leaders last night signed off on an agreement to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 40聽per cent by 2030. But climate scientists are wary of applauding the plan.
For one thing, the target is a cut of 40聽per cent compared with greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 鈥� nearly 25 years ago. Since then, the EU has made cuts of almost 20聽per cent, mainly through burning less coal and outsourcing heavy industries to developing countries. So it is virtually halfway there already.
EU climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard said after the deal that the new target left the EU鈥檚 28 member states 鈥渞ight on target鈥� to meet its longer-term aspiration of an 80聽per cent cut by 2050. But it鈥檚 easy to argue otherwise 鈥� we鈥檙e already nearly halfway there to the new 40 per cent target for 2030, but we鈥檒l have to act tougher and faster to cut a further 40 per cent in the remaining 20 years before 2050.
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Some claim that 40聽per cent is not enough. Greenpeace had been calling for a 55聽per cent target for 2030 instead.
Power trip
The agreement, which was signed off in Brussels by European leaders including Angela Merkel, David Cameron and Fran莽ois Hollande, was based on proposals unveiled by the European Commission in Brussels early this year. They also agreed to increase the share of energy produced from renewable sources from the current 14 per cent to 27 per cent, and to improve energy efficiency by 27聽per cent.
Questions remain about whether the EU can achieve these new collective targets. Leaders have yet to decide how to share out the 40 per cent cut. This will require agreement on legally binding national targets for all 28 nations, potentially a much harder diplomatic task. Past arrangements have allowed some countries to increase emissions while others, notably Germany and the UK, have cut deeper.
Poland, which is heavily dependent on coal energy, had threatened to block last night鈥檚 deal, but backtracked after receiving promises that it would continue to receive free pollution permits under the EU鈥檚 carbon trading system 鈥� effectively, a subsidy for its continued coal burning.
By contrast, the UK government was ready to accept a 50 per cent emissions cut, because its already commits it to severe cuts by 2050.
Industrial pain
Some European business leaders have warned that tougher targets could damage industry, at a time of stagnation in most EU economies. But earlier this week, a group of industrialists headed by Unilever, Shell and Coca-Cola backed the 40聽per cent target and urged tougher 30聽per cent targets for renewables and energy efficiency. Big business came out in support of climate action at talks in New York last month, signifying that companies are wising up to the financial risks that climate change poses.
EU leaders hope their stance will strengthen calls for global action on climate change at UN climate negotiations in Paris next year. 鈥淓urope is setting an example,鈥� said Hollande, the French president, who will preside over those negotiations.
The EU is responsible for just a tenth of the world鈥檚 CO2 emissions. Despite EU cuts, global emissions have risen by 60聽per cent since 1990, and this year, Chinese per-capita emissions exceeded those of the EU for the first time.
