杏吧原创

鈥淚f a car hire excess is 拢1000, and they鈥檙e going to charge me 拢50 for it, then I ask myself, am I really a 20:1 shot to crash this car?鈥�

How do you calculate odds?
You analyse the teams or competitors with the stats you have available. For a Premier League football game, for example, you look at which team is better in the long run, which one has played better recently, where the game is being played, which players are available and any other factors such as how important this particular game is to each team. Having weighed up all these things, you come up with a probability that each team might win.

How much is down to maths and how much to human judgement?
We use algorithms and mathematical models, but very few bookmakers would generate prices and be confident of them using a computer program alone. You need human intervention to make sure everything has been taken into account. For the most part, the final figure comes from the trader鈥檚 head. This is what bookmaker traders do every day. They鈥檙e good at it.

There are basic rules to follow. For example, in the Premier League, about 44 per cent of games are won by the home team, 26 per cent by the away team and 30 per cent are a draw. If you had two teams that looked as good as each other, then those are the percentages you would put on the match. That is your starting point. If you thought the home team was slightly better, you might give them 46 per cent chance of a win instead of 44 per cent.

How are the odds affected by the way punters bet?
Usually not at all. In something like a Premier League game, where the public have as much information as we do, we鈥檇 be very confident in the odds we set and wouldn鈥檛 change our prices readily. That鈥檚 not to say we would never pay attention to where the money goes. You can鈥檛 know every last detail about every event. If you have the 500th tennis player in the world playing the 550th, clearly information is at a premium. If we saw a run of bets on a game like that we would definitely change our odds, because it could be a key indicator of what鈥檚 going to happen.

Are there any events you wouldn鈥檛 offer odds on?
We bet on 674,000 different sporting events last year, but there are limits. On our football page you鈥檇 probably find betting on the Kazakhstan first division, but you wouldn鈥檛 necessarily find betting on the Kazakhstan second division.

If everyone bets on the favourite and the favourite wins鈥�
鈥� then we lose money. But the favourite doesn鈥檛 always win. We鈥檙e relying on the fact that if set our odds accurately, then over the course of time results will even themselves out and we will make a profit. People always want to back the favourite, but that doesn鈥檛 mean you can offer them a smaller payout for a winning bet than other bookmakers, because then you鈥檙e not competitive. Why would someone back something at 2:1 if they can get 3:1 elsewhere?

Do you consider the odds in your day-to-day life the way you do as a bookmaker?
All the time. If I rent a car and they ask whether I want to cover the excess, I ask what the excess is. If it鈥檚 拢1000, and they鈥檙e going to charge me 拢50 for it, then I ask myself, am I really a 20:1 shot to crash this car? If I thought I was more likely to crash than that then I鈥檇 buy the insurance, but I have faith in my driving so I don鈥檛 ever buy the excess.

Read more: 鈥�Chance: How randomness rules our world鈥�