WILL IVF work for you? A new calculator could give you the most accurate prediction yet of your chances of success.
Fertility doctors tend to base a woman鈥檚 odds of IVF success on her age and ovarian reserve 鈥� the number of follicles available for fertilisation. With this information they can decide whether or not to recommend treatment 鈥� which can be expensive, as well as mentally and physically demanding.
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But existing models for predicting the outcome of IVF are based on limited, outdated information, says at the University of Birmingham, UK. IVF techniques have changed considerably since these models were developed 鈥� embryos are grown outside the body for longer, for example. Meanwhile, a decade of research has highlighted many new factors that can affect the outcome, including a woman鈥檚 weight, any previous pregnancies or miscarriages she might have had, the cause of infertility and how long a woman had been trying for a baby. Ethnicity also seems to play a role, although no one is sure why that should be.
To create a model that encompassed all these factors, Dhillon and her colleagues combed through data from almost 10,000 women who had their first round of IVF between 2008 and 2012. The data was taken from a UK-wide chain of fertility clinics, in which a quarter of women had their treatment covered by the NHS, while three-quarters paid privately. IVF was considered a success if a baby was healthy one month after birth.
The team then tested their model鈥檚 ability to predict the IVF outcomes of women who had attended the fertility clinics between 2012 and 2013 and found that it was correct 65 per cent of the time (Human Reproduction, ).
It鈥檚 not clear how accurate current predictions are. For example, a 32-year-old may be told that women her age have a 33 per cent chance of IVF success on average, but should she have any additional problems, such as a history of miscarriage, it is up to the doctor to make a 鈥渂est guess鈥� at predicting how this will affect her chances.
Older models do need to be updated, says at Hull York Medical School in the UK. 鈥淚VF is no easy choice, so couples really should be given the best, most accurate information available,鈥� he says.
The new model is only based on women who are about to start their first cycle of IVF using fresh embryos. Such women are given hormone treatments to stimulate the production of eggs, which are then removed and fertilised with sperm in a lab. A healthy-looking embryo can then be implanted.
, a consultant embryologist at Guy鈥檚 and St Thomas鈥� Private Healthcare in London, says that couples should have more realistic expectations about IVF success rates, but isn鈥檛 convinced couples with low chances will change their minds, even with an updated test. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e the one person it does work for, the statistics don鈥檛 matter,鈥� she says.
(Image: David Curtis/Millennium Images, UK)
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淏est way yet to predict IVF success鈥�
