Defying a long-standing tradition of honeymoons in tropical locations, as well as the existence of the entire state of Texas, a new out this week from the US National Bureau of Economic Research claims there is a link between increasing temperatures and lower 鈥渃oital frequency鈥�.
Written in dry econometric prose, the report is sprinkled with profound insight into the possible implications of climate change on our sex lives, such as 鈥渢emperature may affect time use and, in turn, impact mixing rates among potential sexual partners鈥�.
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A quick check of US birth rates and temperature by state shows that, overall, there鈥檚 probably not cause for alarm: Americans have the most sex in Alaska and Texas, the coldest and hottest states.
To be fair, this isn鈥檛 exactly what the researchers looked at. Instead of average temperature, they compared the frequency of unusual 鈥渉ot days鈥� (defined as warmer than 80 掳F or 27 掳C) 鈥� essentially heat waves 鈥� and the birth rate about nine months later, using 80 years of weather records and the birth dates of every American since 1931 to show a statistically significant link.
They then extrapolate that finding, using a climate change scenario, to project a 2.6 per cent decline in the US birth rate by 2100 鈥� equivalent to about 107,000 fewer births per year. But they鈥檙e very clear to state that this effect is less pronounced in places where it鈥檚 already commonly hot, like the southern US.
The study was first reported , quickly by Drudge, and also enthusiastically hot-taked by , , and a host of other media that don鈥檛 normally cover climate news. 惭补虫颈尘鈥檚 amazing was: 鈥淢other Nature: Just one Giant Cock Block.鈥� Unbelievably, New York 尘补驳补锄颈苍别鈥檚 was even better: 鈥淕lobal Warming Threatens Boners.鈥�
Though conservative media at the premise that weather can affect human behaviour, the study has a ring of truth. In a quick Twitter poll, I was able to replicate the scientists鈥� findings. I asked: Are you more or less likely to have sex if the temperature outside is above 80 掳F? Thirty-six per cent said more likely, 64 per cent less likely.
Love in a cold climate
that humans, like many other animals, have a seasonality in our birth rate that鈥檚 consistent across countries and cultures with similar climates. American babies are , though the peak is later in the year the further south you go (Washington state peaks in July and Florida peaks in October).
That implies Americans have more sex in the autumn and winter months. Researchers are still puzzled about exactly why this happens, but we know the effect is real. Public health experts have even taking advantage of the seasonality of births to maximize the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns.
However, there are a lot of problems with thinking about climate change in this way. For one thing, the authors make almost no effort to tease out complex socio-economic factors that contribute to seasonality in the birth rate, which have found is really important. Other factors, like (yes, I鈥檓 citing an Elle magazine article as evidence here) and , probably also play a big role.
Also, the effect the authors find is really, really small. Across 80 years of data, a single extra hot day produced a 0.4 per cent decrease in the birth rate, though the researchers found a slightly higher birth rate in the 11th, 12th, and 13th month after the hot day that makes up for about one-third of that drop (presumably, because couples trying to get pregnant had extra sex in the weeks following the heat wave).
An additional one-third of the drop was made up for by the rise of air conditioning since the 1970s. That means the effect of hot days on the birth rate in 2015 is probably only about 0.13 per cent 鈥� the researchers would probably find a bigger effect each time a new season of a popular show is released on Netflix.
Also, and most importantly, the researchers are clear that the evidence they find isn鈥檛 strong enough to prove there鈥檚 a link between it being hot outside and not so hot in the bedroom. In the authors鈥� own words, 鈥渢his positive relationship cannot be used to infer causal effects鈥�.
So, sleep (or don鈥檛 sleep) easy, friends. Yes, climate change will create across vast stretches of our planet, but less sex probably isn鈥檛 one of them.
This article was first published by
Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist who writes about weather and climate for Slate
Image credit: Spencer Platt/Getty
