Preliminary February and early March temperatures are in, and it鈥檚 now abundantly clear: warming .
As of 3 March, it appears that average temperatures across the northern hemisphere breached 2掳C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in recorded history, and since human civilisation began thousands of years ago.
The 2掳C mark has (somewhat arbitrarily) as the point above which climate change may begin to become 鈥溾�� to humanity. It has now arrived 鈥� though very briefly and only in the northern hemisphere 鈥� much more quickly than anticipated. This is a milestone moment for our species. Climate change deserves our greatest possible attention.
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As for the planet as a whole, there are dozens of global temperature datasets, and usually I (and other climate journalists) wait until are released to announce a record-breaking month at the global level. But February鈥檚 global data is so extraordinary that there is no need to wait: it obliterated the all-time temperature record .
Using unofficial data and adjusting for different baseline temperatures, it appears that February was somewhere between 掳C and warmer than the long-term average, and about 0.2掳C above January 鈥� making it the most above-average month ever measured. (Since the globe had already warmed by about 0.45掳C above pre-industrial levels during the 1981-2010 baseline meteorologists commonly use, that amount has been added to the data.)
Stunning rise
Keep in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age 2015 to reach the first 1.0掳C rise. That means we have come as much as an extra 0.4掳C further in just the last five months. Even accounting for the margin of error associated with these preliminary datasets, that means it is virtually certain that February beat the record set in January for the most anomalously warm month for the entire globe ever recorded. That鈥檚 stunning.
It also means that for many parts of the northern hemisphere, there basically wasn鈥檛 a winter. Parts of the Arctic were more than 16掳C warmer than average for February, bringing them a few degrees above freezing, on par with typical June temperatures, in what is often the coldest month of the year.
In the US, the winter was in cities coast to coast. In Europe and Asia, dozens of countries their all-time temperature records for February. In the tropics, the record-warmth is prolonging the .
The northernmost permanent settlement, Norway鈥檚 Svalbard archipelago, 10掳C above what is usual in winter, with temperatures rising above freezing on 21 days since 1 December. That kind of extremely unusual weather has prompted a , especially in the Barents Sea.
Sceptical converts
The data for February is so overwhelming that even prominent climate change sceptics have embraced the record. Writing , former NASA scientist Roy Spencer said that according to satellite records 鈥� the dataset of choice by climate sceptics 鈥� February 听featured 鈥渨hopping鈥� temperature anomalies, especially in the Arctic.
Spurred by disbelief, Spencer checked his data with others and said the overlap is 鈥渁bout as good as it gets鈥�. Speaking with The Washington Post, the February data proves 鈥渢here has been warming. The question is how much warming there鈥檚 been.鈥�
Of course, all this is happening in the context of , which tends to boost global temperatures for beyond its usual peak at the end of the calendar year 鈥� mainly because it takes that long for excess heat to filter its way across the planet from the tropical Pacific Ocean.
But El Ni帽o isn鈥檛 entirely responsible for the absurd numbers we are seeing. Its influence on the Arctic and is probably small. In fact, is likely to be small 鈥� on the order of 0.1掳C or so.
No more normal
What鈥檚 actually happening now is the liberation of nearly two decades鈥� worth of global warming energy since the last major El Ni帽o in 1998.
Numbers like this amount to a step-change in our planet鈥檚 climate system. Peter Gleick, a climate scientist at the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, said it is difficult to compare the current temperature spike: 鈥淭he old assumptions about what was normal are being tossed out the window鈥� The old normal is gone.鈥�
Almost overnight, the world has moved within arm鈥檚 reach of the climate goals negotiated . There, small island nations on the front line of climate change set a global temperature target of no more than 1.5掳C rise by the year 2100 as , and that limit was embraced by the global community.
On our current pace, we may reach that level for the first time 鈥� though briefly 鈥� later this year. In fact, for individual days, we are probably already there. We could now be in the heart of that could kick off with far-reaching implications on our species and the countless others we share the planet with.
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