Bad news for believers in clairvoyance. Our brains appear to rewrite history so that the choices we make after an event seem to precede it. In other words, we add loops to our mental timeline that let us feel we can predict things that in reality have already happened.
and at Yale University conducted some simple tests on volunteers. In one experiment, subjects looked at white circles and silently guessed which one would turn red. Once one circle had changed colour, they reported whether or not they had predicted correctly.
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Over many trials, their reported accuracy was significantly better than the 20 per cent expected by chance, indicating that the volunteers either had psychic abilities or had unwittingly played a mental trick on themselves.
The researchers鈥� study design helped explain what was really going on. They placed different delays between the white circles鈥� appearance and one of the circles turning red, ranging from 50 milliseconds to one second. Participants鈥� reported accuracy was highest 鈥� surpassing 30 per cent 鈥� when the delays were shortest.
That鈥檚 what you would expect if the appearance of the red circle was actually influencing decisions still in progress. This suggests it鈥檚 unlikely that the subjects were merely lying about their predictive abilities to impress the researchers.
The mechanism behind this behaviour is still unclear. It鈥檚 possible, the researchers suggest, that we perceive the order of events correctly 鈥� one circle changes colour before we have actually made our prediction 鈥� but then we subconsciously swap the sequence in our memories so the prediction seems to come first. Such a switcheroo could be motivated by a desire to feel in control of our lives.
It鈥檚 not a trick
Another possibility, one Bear prefers, is that we misperceive the order of events in the moment due to inherent limitations in perceptual processing. To put it another way, our brain isn鈥檛 trying to trick us into believing we are in control 鈥� just that it struggles to process a rapid sequence of events in the correct order.
Such findings may also imply that many of the choices we believe we make only appear to be signs of free will after the fact.
Everyday examples of this 鈥減ostdictive illusion of choice鈥� abound. You only think that you consciously decided to scratch an itch, make a deft football play, or blurt out an insult, when really you鈥檙e just taking credit for reflexive actions.
More extreme examples of this fiction include the way some people with schizophrenia suffer delusions of control. Understanding the illusion could point towards treatments.
鈥淭he question now is whether that fiction extends to bigger decisions 鈥� whom to marry, where to go to college, and so on,鈥� says聽, a psychologist at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. 鈥淚s life best considered a collection of small-scale decisions or is there a role for our conscious selves to play?鈥�
Whatever the effect鈥檚 mechanism or scope, this research highlights the fictions we tell ourselves about free will. 鈥淲e are essentially zombie agents most of the time,鈥� Bear says, 鈥渦nder the illusion that we鈥檙e always aware of why we鈥檙e doing what we鈥檙e doing.鈥�
Journal reference: Psychological Science, in press
