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Why gut instinct will decide the most irrational referendum yet
Uncertainty over the future and contradictory political information mean voters in the UK鈥檚 EU referendum will be swung even more than usual by feelings and biases
THE EU referendum could be the most irrational yet. Uncertainty over consequences, and contradictory economic and political information, mean that voters will be swung even more than usual by feelings and biases that have nothing to do with the issues at stake.
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鈥淧olls show that knowledge about the EU in Britain is low,鈥� says John McCormick, who studies EU politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. 鈥淭o a large extent it鈥檚 going to be a domestic protest vote鈥�.
He predicts that instead of EU considerations, many voters will be guided by their entrenched views on immigration, the Conservative government and political figures such as David Cameron, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage.
In this, the EU referendum is similar to the UK鈥檚 in 2011, in which voters were asked if they wanted to replace the first past the post voting system with the 鈥渁lternative vote鈥�. The result was no: 68 per cent to 32 per cent.
Surveys conducted in the weeks before showed that many people didn鈥檛 understand what the alternative system was or what would change were it adopted. Yet many voted anyway, led by 鈥� whether they thought them competent or likeable, for example.
This is the kind of cognitive shortcut that psychologists have found we all use in the face of overwhelming or uncertain information. The problem is that they aren鈥檛 necessarily accurate and may be completely irrelevant.
One of the most common shortcuts is 鈥渟tatus quo bias鈥�. This is the tendency of people who aren鈥檛 politically engaged or who are confused about the possible consequences to vote against change. It has played a role in many referendums including the alternative vote, says Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, UK, and is likely to be even more important in this one.
Brexit is more important for the future of the UK than a switch to the alternative vote, he says, so more people will feel they have a duty to vote even if they really don鈥檛 know what to do.
One of the greatest unknowns is how the current widespread mistrust of political elites will play out. This has contributed to the success of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, as well as the rise of Donald Trump and the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the UK鈥檚 Labour party. Anger at political elites 鈥� including those in Brussels 鈥� may be more influential than traditional concerns such as how the EU affects British values, says Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews in the UK.
鈥淲hat so many politicians fail to understand is that, in this anti-political age, politics as usual doesn鈥檛 work and that doing things that might conventionally doom you now doesn鈥檛,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t might even help you, something Trump has mastered to perfection.鈥� Michael Bond
How opinion polls will shape the narrative of the EU referendum
Despite pollsters鈥� failure to predict the UK鈥檚 2015 general election result, what you are told people think about Brexit will influence whether you vote 鈥� and how
POLITICIANS like to say that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but opinion polls shape the narrative of a vote.
鈥淭he polling sets the territory for the debate,鈥� says Anthony Wells at polling firm YouGov. 鈥淚f the polling shows Leave might win, all the media talk will be about contingency plans.鈥� That could push people into worrying about the uncertainty of Brexit and opting to remain, something that happened in 2014鈥檚 Scottish independence referendum.
A consistent set of neck-and-neck polls is likely to galvanise people to get out and vote, but the Leave camp has an advantage when it comes to voter turnout, as older people are both more likely to vote and to be in favour of Brexit. One thing a close poll won鈥檛 do is encourage tactical voting 鈥� while in a general election voters may switch allegiance to a third party to block another, that can鈥檛 happen in a referendum.
鈥淜nowledge about the EU is low. It will be a domestic protest vote guided by entrenched views鈥�
Whatever the result, polling firms can鈥檛 afford to get it wrong. They are still licking their wounds after an industry-wide failure to predict a Conservative majority in the UK鈥檚 2015 general election.
A report into that failure, published in March, concluded that companies had relied on biased samples that under-represented Conservative voters.
Unfortunately for pollsters, forecasting the results of a referendum brings its own challenges. 鈥淔or a referendum, there isn鈥檛 a previous one four years ago that you can base things on,鈥� says Wells.
There are some assumptions pollsters can make, such as voters who have previously supported the UK Independence Party are very likely to be in favour of Brexit. But in general the EU issue cuts across party lines, says John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, UK, making prediction even more fraught. Jacob Aron
How your Facebook feed will affect your Brexit vote
Both Leave and Remain campaigns have 拢7 million to spend, with a large chunk earmarked for Facebook 鈥� a strategy that seemed to work for the Tories in 2015
THE power of social media to influence politics is one of the narratives of our time 鈥� Obama鈥檚 US presidential win in 2008 was hailed as the and the debate over . But can social media messaging really make up or change minds on an issue as unemotive as Europe?
Campaigners think it鈥檚 worth a punt. Paul Stephenson of the campaign group Vote Leave says Facebook is the prime social media platform. 鈥淏oth campaigns have 拢7 million to spend and we鈥檒l be putting a large chunk of that in Facebook,鈥� he says.
On the face of it it鈥檚 a good bet. In the 2015 UK general election, the Conservatives spent 拢1.3 million on Facebook adverts, targeting people who lived in the 40 constituencies they needed for a majority.
But despite the myriad start-ups that analyse what likes, shares and comments really mean, it鈥檚 hard to find out whether this converts to votes. In the case of the 2015 campaign, 鈥渁ll we can do is correlate Facebook spend with the results in those seats that were targeted鈥�, says Darren Lilleker at Bournemouth University, UK.
Doing well on social media doesn鈥檛 always lead to a win, however. In the 2014 Scottish referendum, the Yes campaign was ahead on social media throughout 鈥� and lost.
Graeme Baxter of Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, UK, says politicians of both sides weren鈥檛 using social media鈥檚 full power. In general, he says, campaigns often use it as a broadcast platform. But a monologue tends to appeal only to those who already agree with everything a campaign is saying. It ignores social media鈥檚 potential to draw voters into a richer two-way conversation 鈥� the digital equivalent of door-to-door canvassing.
Stephenson says Leave does respond to direct messages but not to all the posts people put on their feed: 鈥淭hat would be impossible!鈥�
The reticence may also be down to the fact that something said in response to an individual could get rebroadcast across the web and sound inappropriate. 鈥淭here have been so many high-profile faux pas over the years, I can understand why some are reluctant,鈥� says Baxter.
Perhaps the biggest input of social media will be to draw in people who haven鈥檛 been thinking about the referendum 鈥� whether that鈥檚 via campaign content that people share or via friends鈥� own grassroots endorsements. 鈥淭here will be an element of accidental exposure,鈥� says Lilleker, which could push people who hadn鈥檛 considered voting to vote. Friends can put information in front of us we may not have sought out ourselves, says Nigel Jackson of Plymouth University, UK, adding that friends are one of the most powerful influences on who we vote for. Hal Hodson
Find out more about the science of Brexit
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淗ow Britain will decide鈥�