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IF YOU believe the hype, 2016 is the year of virtual reality. Long thought to be a technological dead end, VR began its comeback in 2012, when an upstart called the Oculus Rift took the internet by storm with its promises of a fully immersive environment.

Tech giants scrambled to make their own headsets 鈥� Sony鈥檚 PlayStation VR, released this week, is the latest. Now that these devices are finally on the market, we鈥檙e starting to figure out how they might fit into our lives.

Facebook, which bought Oculus for $2 billion in 2014, has anointed VR as the technology that will supersede smartphones as the primary medium for digital life. 鈥淲e are here to make VR the next major computing platform,鈥� said CEO Mark Zuckerberg at an Oculus conference last week. But it seems the general public isn鈥檛 buying into this brave new world 鈥� sales of high-end goggles are tiny and hardly growing. Could it be that while people are happy to paw at a screen, they don鈥檛 want one inches from their eyeballs?

VR has burned out before. In the 1990s, bulky VR booths started , and Nintendo launched its Virtual Boy headset in 1995. But the bubble quickly burst as people found the creaking tech to be a lacklustre experience, and the Virtual Boy was discontinued after a year of disappointing sales (see chart).

鈥淰R has burned out before 鈥� in the 1990s people found the creaking tech to be a lacklustre experience鈥�

This time is different, says at the University of California, Santa Barbara. 鈥淔or the first time, all the major players are invested in the field 鈥� Google, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook.鈥�

Unlike in the 1990s, the gear really works, and as of this year, consumers can buy it. Modern VR runs the gamut from cheap and cheerful viewers to expensive hardware dedicated to delivering true immersion.

Purpose-made headsets are on the top end of this spectrum, with high-quality optical components and sensors that track the wearer鈥檚 movements and replicate them in the virtual environment. The HTC Vive and Facebook鈥檚 Oculus Rift are the two main players in this full-blown experience 鈥� which enthusiasts call 鈥渞eal鈥� VR. They cost about 拢600, plus another 拢900 for a computer with enough power to drive the graphics.

The opposite end of the spectrum is a smartphone strapped to your face. These viewers can be very basic: Google has shipped millions of units called Cardboard, which is just two plastic lenses in a cardboard housing for the phone, sold cheap or even given away.

Others, like Samsung鈥檚 Gear VR and Google鈥檚 Daydream, cost less than 拢100 and integrate some of the features of pricier headsets, like head tracking, providing reasonable VR experiences when paired with a top phone.

But people aren鈥檛 using their phones to explore Zuckerberg鈥檚 virtual future. They鈥檙e just watching fancy videos.

Niche thing

It鈥檚 a growing market for directors like Sebastian Hagemeister. Based in London, he flies all over the world filming 360-degree video, promos and adverts designed to be viewed in virtual reality. A whole industry has sprung up making expensive content for platforms that most of us have never used and are only just starting to get our hands on.

For that reason, Hagemeister says most of his videos are viewed on normal computer screens through Facebook or YouTube.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 have any stats, but I鈥檓 pretty sure that people watching these on the headsets are very much a minority at the moment, and will be for quite some time,鈥� says Hagemeister. 鈥淚t鈥檚 quite a geeky niche thing.鈥�

Still, at the bottom end of the market, VR viewer sales are on the up. 鈥淚n the second quarter of 2016 over a million Cardboard units shipped in China,鈥� says Tom Mainelli at IDC, a market research company in Framingham, Massachusetts. Samsung鈥檚 Gear VR is bundled with the company鈥檚 latest smartphone, and Facebook says 1 million people have used the device to access its content.

Google also plans to bundle its Daydream viewer with every new Pixel phone it sells 鈥� a good strategy, says Mainelli. 鈥淰R is not going to be as big as smartphones, but by attaching itself to smartphones you can get to a big number of people.鈥�

In contrast, sales of dedicated headsets are flatlining. Neither HTC nor Facebook are open about the number they鈥檝e sold, although Zuckerberg did admit to a 鈥渟low start鈥� for the Oculus Rift.

That鈥檚 in line with data from game marketplace Steam, which conducts a monthly of its users鈥� hardware. Figures for VR headsets have remained effectively flat for months, with 0.31 per cent of Steam users reporting the hardware in September. It鈥檚 perhaps no surprise, given that VR lacks a 鈥渒iller app鈥� to drive hardware sales, as Wii Sports did for the Wii.

This week鈥檚 release of the PlayStation headset is the last ray of light for 鈥渇ull鈥� VR. Somewhere between the impressive capabilities of Vive and Oculus, and weaker phone-powered VR, Sony鈥檚 headset will run off the PlayStation 4. With millions of consoles out there, it can plug into a ready-made market that neither Oculus nor HTC has.

Even if full-blown VR does go mainstream, how will it be used? Hollerer suggests that homes may have an alcove for occasional VR use. Live sports could also drive adoption, if broadcasters get on board. 鈥淭hink about the ability to be courtside in a basketball game,鈥� says Mainelli. 鈥淵ou can see how advertisers would see the upside.鈥�

Ultimately though, VR鈥檚 inherent effect of shutting out the world limits its potential. This has led industry observers to suggest that augmented reality, rather than virtual reality, is a more legitimate place to look for Zuckerberg鈥檚 鈥渘ext platform鈥�.

Instead of immersing the viewer in a digital world, augmented reality overlays the physical world with digital information. 鈥淚 happen to think that AR is the real game changer and is going to have a much bigger impact on consumers and business,鈥� says Mainelli (see 鈥�Life, overlaid鈥�).

鈥淲e wouldn鈥檛 have thought 10 years ago that people would be walking around staring at small screens鈥�

Zuckerberg may have reached the same conclusion 鈥� at the conference last week he pointed the way to a future, a mere 10 or 15 years away, where simple glasses can deliver both immersive VR and AR experiences.

Makers of these devices are all essentially second-guessing the same thing 鈥� what comes next in society鈥檚 ongoing shift towards merging digital information from screens with our daily lives. Bulky headsets may not win us over, but it seems inevitable that we will keep reducing the distance between us and the digital worlds we increasingly inhabit.

鈥淲e wouldn鈥檛 have thought 10 years ago that people would be walking around staring at small screens while they鈥檙e walking,鈥� says H枚llerer. 鈥淏ut they do, because the benefits are there.鈥�

For VR to work, it will have to get cheaper and easier to use, making the tech of the Oculus and Vive more accessible to the masses. The technology will also need to offer tangible benefits, not merely port functions from old screens to new. Whether that is possible before the bubble bursts again remains to be seen.

This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淩eality check鈥�