THE wildebeest look tired. Skittish at the slightest sound, their hooves pound the dusty plain until they kick up a cloud that obscures the hundreds of animals in the herd. Under the dust, the short grass is yellow and grey, if it鈥檚 there at all. How do these animals find sustenance amid this sparseness, I wonder? Where is the water?
鈥淒rought,鈥� answers Ngiimba, my Maasai guide. 鈥淢ore than a year now. Killed over 50 per cent of livestock.鈥�
I鈥檓 in Tanzania鈥檚 Serengeti National Park, a sprawling wilderness the size of Belgium. The Serengeti鈥檚 great annual migration sees as many as 2 million wildebeest, zebras and gazelles travel thousands of kilometres between Tanzania and Kenya. And though there is wildlife seemingly everywhere 鈥� lions, cheetahs, elephants 鈥� Ngiimba鈥檚 words hint at trouble. It鈥檚 supposed to be the rainy season, but not a drop has fallen in my 10 days here.
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The relationship to water stretches far beyond the savannah, and affects humans as much as wild animals. The water shortages are causing humans to compete with wildlife for resources and push into their territory. It is not uncommon for locals to lead their flocks onto protected lands to graze. Increasingly, people find that their crops and livestock are dying, leading to a food shortage that could become a humanitarian crisis.
鈥淭he biggest problem is that people and wildlife don鈥檛 recover,鈥� warns Friederike Otto at the University of Oxford. 鈥淭he soil cannot recover, so deep soil moisture cannot rebuild.鈥� That means a bad cycle is poised to get worse. The only major river in the area 鈥� the Mara 鈥� could dry up, further stunting grassland growth and imperilling resources for ungulates.
When rainfall does hit the parched earth, the potential for flash floods increases, and these can make it near impossible for herds to cross rivers. Sparse rain also means wildlife must scatter over a wider area in search of water, which increases animals鈥� odds of straying into developed areas, where fencing can block their way. If the bodies of water in the area disappear entirely, 30 per cent of the wildebeest migrating through could die within two weeks.
North of the border, in Kenya, there鈥檚 talk of damming the Mara, which would 鈥渄ecimate the migration鈥�, says David Blanton, co-founder of non-profit initiative Serengeti Watch. His organisation helps train locals in conservation and journalism, encouraging them to become invested in protecting their environment. 鈥淭his place has to be saved by the people who own it and live next to it,鈥� he says.
It鈥檚 sobering stuff. East Africa鈥檚 population has increased by 74 per cent between 1988 and 2008, and could further double by 2050. Poaching and the bushmeat trade will skyrocket, and this land may soon be unrecognisable.
鈥淲e have to bridge the gap between scientists and politicians,鈥� says Eivin R酶skaft, a conservation biologist who heads the European Union-funded AfricanBioServices project. 鈥淎s long as tourists come to give money, we can use that argument for politicians. Otherwise, it鈥檚 really hard to find good arguments why they should save nature.鈥�
A third of Tanzania鈥檚 land is protected, but R酶skaft says factors such as the population growth and rising demand for natural resources threaten not only wildebeest migration, but all wildlife in the area. 鈥淚f there鈥檚 no will from the West, these trends will continue,鈥� he says.
This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淒rought is hitting Serengeti wildlife鈥�