杏吧原创

MYLES ALLEN takes no prisoners. Few lay into the sluggishness of politicians or the self-serving pronouncements of big-oil CEOs with more vigour than the chief climate modeller at the University of Oxford. That鈥檚 just as well, since he is fighting science鈥檚 corner in two vital areas: the scientific attribution of extreme weather to climate change, and the attribution of climate change to corporate emissions. He wants to join the dots and show the world 鈥� and particularly the courts 鈥� where the culpability lies for global warming.

I catch Allen in the wake of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The evidence is clear, he says, that 鈥渃limate change increases the risk of such intense, short-duration rainfall events鈥�. As a result, he wants the contribution of climate change to be pointed out in every weather report. 鈥淚t鈥檚 time meteorologists put our estimates of the impact of climate change into their weather forecasts.鈥�

Allen is frustrated by the scientific and political caution that prevents this happening. Climate scientists should be more direct, he says 鈥� asking and answering the questions that get to the heart of the issue. 鈥淚 spent the first 15 years of my career as a climate modeller pointing out how complicated things were, and then the next 10 years atoning for that [by stressing how] it鈥檚 really very simple.鈥� Yes, the uncertainties in climate science should be acknowledged, he says, but amid the caution, 鈥減eople miss the fact that our best estimate of the human contribution to global warming is actually: all of it鈥�.

With extreme weather becoming ever more likely, Allen reckons the climate road will only get bumpier. He fears a climate meltdown: runaway climate change, a mega-disaster or the breakdown of a major feature of the climate system, such as the Asian monsoon. He likens this to the financial crash of 2008. 鈥淭he story of both would be the same,鈥� he says, 鈥渨ith very profitable industries building up big risks for society that don鈥檛 appear in their accounting.鈥� He notes that aid budgets, rather than big-oil profits, are being used to restore infrastructure in the Caribbean after Hurricane Irma.

If a climate crash comes, we may look back with as much incredulity as we now view the bankers鈥� rollercoaster ride to global disaster. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why the conversation about those risks has to start when events like hurricanes Harvey and Irma make them suddenly visible,鈥� he says. Because people generally care about the weather today, not decades from now.

For more than a decade, Allen has been calling for a direct approach to fighting climate change. Rather than trying to get reluctant governments to redesign their energy systems or create carbon-trading schemes, he wants to hold fossil fuel firms accountable in law for the downsides of their emissions and hit them where it hurts, like the tobacco companies.

In 2005, he called for action against 鈥渢he 20 or so coal and oil companies鈥� responsible for most carbon dioxide emissions in New 杏吧原创. Since then, legal cases have been brought, but they have failed 鈥渂ecause judges decided that because governments were regulating CO₂, the courts had no role鈥�.

Despite such setbacks, big oil is still firmly in his sights. Allen鈥檚 most recent paper listed fossil-fuel companies in order of what he has calculated is their responsibility for CO₂ emissions. Saudi Aramco tops the list, closely followed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP and Gazprom. His team鈥檚 meticulous modelling showed, for instance, that 30 per cent of the sea level rise since 1880 is down to just 90 carbon emitters. 鈥淭heir products are warming the planet. They need to be held to account.鈥�

The election of Donald Trump brought with it further challenges for climate researchers. The most disappointing moment in Allen鈥檚 career came when Trump鈥檚 administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, refused to agree that CO₂ was the main driver of climate change. 鈥淭hat really was a depressing setback. We did that science in the 1990s. It was difficult to find recent papers to contradict Pruitt because nobody thought we had to do that stuff anymore.鈥�

Even so, he finds an intriguing silver lining in Trump鈥檚 crusade against climate science. 鈥淭he law could come to our rescue. The US withdrawal from the Paris accord may change things for American companies.鈥� Why? If there is no government-level emissions regulation in the US, he says, then legal liability could return. 鈥淐oncern over that may be why the large fossil fuel companies in the US were arguing against withdrawal,鈥� he says.

This thought leaves him more optimistic that something will be done about climate change beyond current reliance on governments to fight it. 鈥淧aris was strong on aspiration, but the progress since has been minimal.鈥� He believes more in the power of courts, economics and public pressure 鈥� and above all in being direct. For that reason, he is frustrated by the efforts of environmentalists to turn climate change into a grand debate about how the world gets its energy, or the ethics of consumption and capitalism. Just ban greenhouse gas emissions and be done with it, he says, and require those who make and burn fossil fuels to prevent emissions in whatever way they choose 鈥� with carbon capture and storage likely to play a key role.

He has no time for gesture politics. 鈥淚f I had to pick out a group who I am most frustrated with, it would not be the fossil fuel industry; it would be the environment movement for their demonisation of the fossil fuel industry.鈥� Big oil isn鈥檛 going away any time soon, he says, so environmentalists need to stop holding their noses and engage with it. When the giant US coal companies Peabody Energy and Arch Coal hit hard times last year, Allen called for one of the many cash-rich environmental NGOs in the US to buy them. 鈥淭hey could have taken a substantial share of coal reserves into the hands of people committed to stabilising climate. Sadly that opportunity passed.鈥�

鈥淭here may be a silver lining in Trump鈥檚 crusade against climate science鈥�

While life as a climate scientist comes with built-in disappointments, Allen remains warily optimistic. 鈥淚鈥檓 completely confident the world will fix climate change during the 21st century,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut I鈥檓 not convinced it will get fixed in a particularly rational way. And it will probably be substantially more painful than it need be. It鈥檚 very frustrating.鈥�

If a legal landscape should develop that promises to turn some of that pain back on the oil industry, Allen will be waiting with his scientific ammunition. 鈥淧aris recognised the need for net-zero emissions. So the owners of fossil-fuel assets now need to explain how those assets are going to be used in a net-zero world. If they don鈥檛, we come back to liability.鈥� In other words: see you in court.

This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淭ime to play the weather blame game鈥�