杏吧原创

The aviation industry is trying to stop countries doing more to limit greenhouse gas emissions from flying. But the European Union looks set to formally object to the industry scheme, meaning it will remain free to impose stricter plans.

Flying generates more than 2 per cent of CO₂ globally, and emissions are expected to double before 2050. Most countries are doing nothing about it, as aviation emissions are excluded from UN climate agreements.聽EU nations are an exception,聽as聽aviation fuel is subject to a carbon tax as part of a carbon trading scheme.

In 2016, industry body the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) finally came up with up with its own plan. Rather than limit future emissions, however, the proposed Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), involves offsetting them 鈥� that is, paying for schemes that reduce carbon emissions.

But offsetting is ineffective. A 2017 EU report concluded that .

CORSIA would still be better than nothing if it was a first step towards further action, says Andrew Murphy of Transport & Environment, in Brussels, Belgium, which campaigns to make transport greener and healthier. Instead, the aviation industry wants to make it the only action permitted. Any additional measures, such as carbon taxes on jet fuels, would be forbidden.

These proposals would allow the air industry to claim it is taking action on climate yet would place no limits on its future growth. Countries had until 1 December to object, and the EU this week聽looks almost certain聽to send a formal 鈥淣otification of Differences鈥�, says Murphy.

It鈥檚 possible other countries will object too, but the ICAO is so secretive this is unlikely to become public knowledge. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an uphill battle trying to figure out what happens,鈥� says Murphy.

EU aviation emissions are projected to rise from 150 megatonnes of CO₂ a year today to 210 megatonnes by 2030. The EU鈥檚 target is to cut this to 110 megatonnes by 2030. If it was bound to CORSIA alone, it would have no way to achieve this, as offsets are not recognised under EU law.

However, cutting aviation emissions will still be tough even without the shackles the industry wants to impose. It means either raising prices high enough to make people fly less or switching to biofuels. And some biofuels are even worse in environmental terms. For instance, Indonesia plans to make jet fuel from palm oil, which would lead to the destruction of more of the rainforests in which orangutans live.