Climate change made last week鈥檚 deadly heatwave in Europe at least five times more likely, according to a rapid analysis.
The team of European researchers who conducted the work also found humanity鈥檚 warming of the planet made the heatwave about 4掳C hotter than it would otherwise have been. The findings came as showed that the average European temperature last month was the hottest ever for June.
The intense heatwave affected large areas of Europe, . France saw the hottest temperatures, including an all-time high of 45.9掳C near the city of N卯mes, a level more typical of Death Valley, California. Manure self-ignited in Spain, causing a wildfire.
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Hoping to avoid a repeat of the , authorities in France postponed exams and set up 鈥榗ool rooms鈥� for people, while Germany imposed motorway speed restrictions over fears of roads cracking. At least ; the true toll will not become clear until much later.
But we now know the exceptional heatwave was made much more likely by global warming, due to an assessment published on Tuesday by the .
They used computer models to calculate the temperatures we would expect to see in France with the 1掳C of warming 鈥� our current level above pre-industrial temperatures 鈥� and also without it.
They then looked at the average temperature in three days in June across France and in the French city of Toulouse and compare the observations with the models.
The results for France as a whole showed that climate change increased the probability of the heatwave by at least a factor five.聽The results were similar for Toulouse.
While the researchers were very confident in the heatwave being made at least five times more likely, they said the real world temperature data shows the probability could have been increased by as much as 100 times.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute says although five times is the minimum, the true figure 鈥渃ould be much higher.鈥� Up to 100 times is a possibility but should not be taken too seriously, the team says, because of the difficult of modelling clouds, the interaction between atmosphere and soil, and reproducing such extreme, record-breaking temperatures in models.
Compared to a heatwave in June in 1901, last week鈥檚 one was about 4掳C hotter.聽鈥淭his is a strong reminder again, that climate change is happening here and now,鈥� said聽Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford.
