The world鈥檚 last great untapped coal deposit is about to go up in smoke. Botswana is sitting on vast amounts of coal and is ramping up efforts to mine and export it. But climate scientists warn that to meet the world鈥檚 climate goals most of it has to stay in the ground.
Botswana鈥檚 coal was discovered in the 1960s but has remained virtually untouched, largely due to the country鈥檚 small population and lack of infrastructure for exports. But several companies are now developing the coalfields and the country鈥檚 first commercial consignment will be exported to South Africa this month.
Estimating coal deposits is fraught with difficulty, but Botswana鈥檚 are large. 鈥淓veryone agrees that it has the biggest coal reserves in Africa, though the extent and quality are far from understood,鈥� says Nicola Wagner at the University of Johannesburg in South Africa.
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One analysis settled on 28.5 billion tonnes, which would put Botswana in the global top five, and the number one undeveloped resource. 鈥淭hat sounds about right,鈥� says Wagner.
Until this year Botswana only had one coal mine, a which produces less than a million tonnes a year to generate electricity. But in recent years, interest in Botswana鈥檚 coal has ramped up as the government seeks to become energy independent and diversify the economy away from diamonds, says Mmilili Mapolelo at the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation.
This month, the country鈥檚 first privately run coal mine, the opencast near the capital city Gaborone, produced its first saleable coal. Owner Minergy Coal says the mine is producing 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes of coal a month and will increase to 100,000 tonnes early next year.
Other companies are developing mines and the state-owned mine is also planning to quadruple production, says Mapolelo.
The development could be bad news for the climate. The message is clear: coal has to be phased out for us to limit global warming to 1.5 掳C, says Joeri Rogelj at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, a research organisation in Austria. In calculations Rogelj performed for New 杏吧原创, he found that Botswana鈥檚 coal would pump 63 to 84 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere 鈥� which is 15 to 25 per cent of the total amount the world can safely emit to have a 50-50 chance of staying under 1.5 掳C of warming.
Developing coal is a 鈥渟trange decision鈥� for a country that has vast solar resources and is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, says Rogelj. 鈥淚f not today, then 10 years from now, solar energy would become a far preferable way to power development.鈥� India and China are already pulling out of coal, he says. In the developing world, only Indonesia is also planning a coal expansion.
However, Wagner says that Botswana is eyeing coal not for power generation but to sell to South Africa, which has long used coal as an oil substitute in industry but is running out.
Botswana鈥檚 coal rush raises thorny questions about how, or even if, developing countries should be encouraged to leave their fossil fuels in the ground. 鈥淩ich countries must find a way of recognising the economic cost of developing countries leaving their fossil fuels in the ground, including through the provision of both financial and technical support,鈥� says Ian Duncan, the UK鈥檚 minister for climate change. 鈥淐arbon capture will obviously have a critical role to play too.鈥�
Minergy declined to comment, but in a at the Botswana Resource Conference last year, then CEO Andre Boje said: 鈥淭he developed nations were developed on the back of fossil fuels鈥� [They] should increase cut backs to allow developing nations space, especially in Africa.鈥�
