杏吧原创

IN 1976, a NASA intern named Gary George attended a government surplus auction in Houston, Texas. He was hopelessly outbid for a special agent鈥檚 car, a souped-up Porsche 911. But he did shell out $218 for three truckloads of NASA film reels, more than enough to fill his bemused parents鈥� garage, in the hope that they could earn him some beer money.

He sold some and trashed others, donating what remained to a local church. But George followed his father鈥檚 advice and kept three reels labelled 鈥淎pollo 11 EVA鈥�, figuring they might be worth something one day. He wasn鈥檛 wrong. Earlier this year, on the 50th anniversary of the moon landing, the tapes 鈥� the clearest known NASA recordings of the first moonwalk 鈥� sold for $1.8 million in New York.

George was lucky. But he isn鈥檛 the only person to have taken advantage of a recent boom in interest in scientific items at auction. These days, obscure scientific ephemera have become high-grossing, headline-grabbing lots at the world鈥檚 largest auction houses.

From fragments of a bible once flown to the moon and now ensconced in a Faberg茅 egg (over 拢8000), to Alan Turing鈥檚 forgotten manuscripts, rescued from a locked desk ($1,025,000), long-neglected scientific curios are on their way to becoming the new Picassos and O鈥橩eeffes (see 鈥�Science for sale鈥�).

So what sells? And how can you, the science-savvy investor, find tomorrow鈥檚 treasures amid the uninspiring academic flotsam of today?

For a long time, scientific items paled in comparison to the paintings and objets d鈥檃rt that commanded the highest prices. Now, things have changed. Over the past few years, auction houses such as Christie鈥檚, Sotheby鈥檚 and Bonhams have expanded their dedicated scientific sales, driving an explosion of interest 鈥� and profits. During its last auction season, Christie鈥檚 London sold 拢4.5 million worth of scientific material, comprising more than a third of its auction turnover within its books and manuscripts department.

Across the pond, Sotheby鈥檚 held its first History of Science and Technology sale in New York in late 2017, raising $1.4 million. Just a year later, the company鈥檚 first 鈥淕eek Week鈥� focusing on science, technology and space exploration yielded $7.4 million.

鈥淭he first auction that I did for space exploration made $800,000,鈥� says Cassandra Hatton of Sotheby鈥檚. 鈥淭he one that I just did made $5.5 million.鈥� In six years, the market has changed dramatically.

In that time, the going rate for certain items has rocketed. Take Enigma machines, the encryption devices used by the German military in the second world war. In 2012, you could buy a pristine example for 拢85,000. In 2017, one sold for more than $547,500.

An object doesn鈥檛 need to be high-tech to be high-value. A shabby leather jacket of Albert Einstein鈥檚 sold for 拢110,500 in 2018, despite 鈥� or perhaps because of 鈥� the lingering smell of tobacco. The same year, a first edition copy of Ada Lovelace鈥檚 Sketch of the Analytical Engine, which some claim contains the first computer program, sold for 拢95,000.

What sets these particular items apart? 鈥淚t is quite natural that the great scientists should increasingly be seen as the foundational figures of our modern age,鈥� says Thomas Venning of Christie鈥檚. 鈥淲e live in a scientific age. I think it鈥檚 just in the zeitgeist.鈥�

Predicting what will make millions and what will flop isn鈥檛 an exact science, however. Hatton says she judges items on four key factors: condition, rarity, story and impact. Those last two are crucial.

鈥淎 really great example is Nobel prizes,鈥� she says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e all worth about $10,000 in gold, but when you engrave the name Richard Feynman on it, [or] Crick or Watson, suddenly that is transformed. You鈥檙e doing alchemy.鈥�

When it comes to prices, brevity is key. 鈥淭he shorter the story, the more it鈥檚 worth,鈥� says Hatton. Venning agrees: 鈥淲e sometimes joke in the department that the auction appeal of a lot is in inverse proportion to the number of words you need to explain what it is.鈥�

The three little words 鈥渢aken to space鈥� can do a lot of heavy lifting. 鈥淓veryone knows who Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin are, no matter where you are in the world, what language you speak, how old you are,鈥� says Hatton. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a democratic collecting field that has a much easier learning curve. There are low-risk items. You can get small things that flew in space for not a tremendous amount of money.鈥�

As for the future of the scientific market, experts are reluctant to speculate 鈥� but that shouldn鈥檛 stop the rest of us from some educated guesswork (see 鈥�Lots to come?鈥�). Some treasures may not be easy to lay your hands on. But for those enterprising few who are willing to think creatively, there are no doubt riches waiting to be unearthed.