OUTSIDE Batlow in New South Wales, the scorched remains of wildlife and livestock lie pressed against fences, where they tried in vain to escape the flames that ripped through the area on 4 January. Along with the other billion-or-so other animals that have already perished in Australia鈥檚 worst wildfires on record, they will be buried in mass graves dug by the army.
Australians, myself included, are in a state of shock. At least 24 people have died, more than 2000 homes have been gutted, and 8 million hectares 鈥� an area the size of Scotland 鈥� have burned. For months now, the brown and red skies and smell of smoke have been a constant reminder of the tragedy unfolding around us .
The fires are being driven by record-breaking hot, dry conditions, which make vegetation more likely to catch fire when exposed to ignition sources like lightning strikes or discarded cigarettes. On 8 January, the Bureau of Meteorology announced that 2019 was both Australia鈥檚 driest and warmest year on record. On 18 December, the country had its hottest ever single day, when the average maximum temperature reached .
Advertisement
Despite these extremes, the Australian government has acted almost as if nothing unusual is happening. In November, deputy prime minister Michael McCormack that 鈥渨e鈥檝e had fires in Australia since time began鈥�. He dismissed the role of climate change in the current fires as the 鈥渞avings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital-city greenies鈥�.
But Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick at the University of New South Wales says there is no doubt that climate change is a driving factor. 鈥淲e can certainly say it has contributed to the length and severity of this fire season,鈥� she says. In 2008, predicted that from about 2020, global warming would cause Australia鈥檚 fire seasons to start earlier, end later and be more intense. 鈥淲e knew this was going to happen,鈥� says Perkins-Kirkpatrick.
鈥淲e can certainly say climate change is a driving factor. We knew this was going to happen鈥�
Two large-scale climate phenomena are also contributing to the conditions underpinning the fires, says Andrew Watkins at Australia鈥檚 Bureau of Meteorology. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has pushed warm water away from Australia towards Africa, leading to drought. And the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has driven hot, dry winds from Australia鈥檚 desert interior towards its east coast and fanned fires in New South Wales and Victoria 鈥� the south-eastern states that have been worst hit.
These two phenomena have coincided in Australia in the past, but never for this long in recorded history, says Watkins. Add in the that Australia has experienced since 1910 and you get a dangerous mix, he says.
The fires started in September, a month earlier than Australia鈥檚 official fire-danger season, which runs from October until the end of March. They have already burned through , and torn through in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland that have historically been too wet to burn.
The sheer intensity of the fires has caused them to generate their own storm clouds, called pyrocumulonimbus, which can spit out lightning that starts more fires. Former New South Wales fire and rescue commissioner Greg Mullins that he had rarely seen fire-generated thunderstorms in his 47 years of fighting fires, but now they are occurring regularly.
It is also now common to see my fellow Sydneysiders wearing gas masks on the way to work. On 1 January, Canberra鈥檚 air quality was the .
The fires have taken a huge toll on Australia鈥檚 unique wildlife. Chris Dickman at the University of Sydney estimates that 1.3 billion mammals, birds and reptiles have died in the fires. Flying animals like birds and bats and fast-moving animals like kangaroos may initially have been able to escape the flames, but probably died soon afterwards because of the difficulty of finding food, water and shelter in the blackened landscape, says Dickman.
鈥淲e also know that invasive species like cats and foxes quickly move in after a fire goes through and pick off small native animals, so it鈥檚 really grim,鈥� he says.
Dickman has particularly grave fears for species like the eastern bristlebird, long-footed potoroo and silver-headed antechinus, which are already endangered and live almost exclusively in fire-affected areas. They may have been wiped out altogether, he says.
Australia鈥檚 prime minister, Scott Morrison, has been heavily criticised for . They wanted to warn him of the risk of a catastrophic looming fire season.
Morrison has also refused to ramp-up Australia鈥檚 greenhouse emissions reduction targets, saying in a press conference on 2 January that the government needs to balance a 鈥渧ibrant and viable economy鈥� with a 鈥渧ibrant and sustainable environment鈥�. According to , 93 per cent of Australia鈥檚 energy comes from fossil fuels, compared with the 80 per cent average for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Without a big shift to renewable energy, the country is on track to miss its 2030 Paris climate deal target.
As New 杏吧原创 went to press, dozens of fires continued to burn in New South Wales and Victoria, but light rain and cooler conditions since 5 January had helped firefighters partially contain them. None were burning at emergency levels, but there were concerns that forecast warmer weather could soon cause conditions to deteriorate again.
鈥淭ypically, in southern Australia, the hottest weeks are at the end of January and in early February, so we haven鈥檛 even hit our hottest period yet,鈥� says Watkins.
Shifts in the IOD and SAM climate patterns suggest that the hot, dry conditions should ease by March or April, says Watkins. We don鈥檛 know when they will return, but suggests that climate change will make such IOD events more common, he says.
When the fires are finally extinguished, it will be a long road to recovery. For many Australians, it is clear that these fires aren鈥檛 business as usual. For me, that realisation came as ash rained down on the face of my infant son at a Sydney beach. On social media, on the radio, at the pub, people are finally talking about what we need to do about climate change. If that pressures the government into real action, it will be one small consolation.
