A new world record for hottest year may be set before 2025, according to the UK Met Office, which says there is an outside chance temperatures will temporarily overshoot the toughest target of the Paris climate deal.
The , with the title of warmest year held by 2016, when climate change and the El Ni帽o phenomenon drove temperatures 1.16掳C above pre-industrial levels. In a using 20 computer models, the Met Office says today there is a more than 66 per cent chance that the 2016 record will be beaten between 2020 and 2024.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really a sign the planet is warming. To get another [record] in the next five years is consistent with the warming trend,鈥� says Doug Smith at the Met Office.
Advertisement
The group鈥檚 forecast shows that any one year between 2020 and 2024 is likely to be between 1.06掳C and 1.62掳C warmer, meaning it could be more than 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels, the target world leaders have pledged to 鈥減ursue efforts鈥� to avoid.
However, one year above the threshold would be symbolic rather than a sign the Paris target has been irrevocably breached. For the Paris goals, the consistent annual norm across several years is what matters. The chance of one year before 2025 being more than 1.5掳C warmer is also low, less than 10 per cent, in the Met Office analysis. Still, if the milestone did come to pass, Smith says: 鈥淚t would be the first indication that we are starting to get close [to the Paris limit].鈥�
The global average masks the fact that some regions are already being hit by much hotter temperatures. In 2019, Australia had its hottest year ever, at 1.52掳C above average, and Europe had its warmest December too, .
Article amended on 7 February 2020
We corrected the attribution of the quotes; and we corrected the period that was Europe鈥檚 warmest.
