The world must prepare for a potential coronavirus pandemic, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.
Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, Switzerland, today, Tedros Ghebreyesus said the spread of the covid-19 virus around the world is not yet at pandemic stage but acknowledged that it has the potential to become one.
鈥淭he sudden increases of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning,鈥� Ghebreyesus said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of speculation about whether these increases mean that this epidemic has now become a pandemic.鈥�
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The WHO no longer uses an official scale to declare a pandemic, although Margaret Harris at the WHO told the PA news agency it will start to use the term in communications if it believes a pandemic is reached.
鈥淥ur decision about whether to use the word 鈥榩andemic鈥� to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society,鈥� Ghebreyesus said.
鈥淔or the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death,鈥� he added. 鈥淯sing the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear,鈥� he added.
鈥淲e must focus on containment, while doing everything we can to prepare for a potential pandemic. There is no one-size-fits-all approach.鈥�
鈥淲e already have a covid-19 epidemic in China and, more recently, large outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy,鈥� Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK, told the Science Media Centre in London today. 鈥淚f those outbreaks cannot be brought under control, then covid-19 would fit the criteria of a pandemic.鈥�
鈥淲e now consider this to be a pandemic in all but name,鈥� Bharat Pankhania from the University of Exeter Medical School, UK, told the Science Media Centre.
Cases slow in China
Ghebreyesus said the WHO was 鈥渆ncouraged by the continued decline in cases in China鈥�, even though 77,000 more cases have been declared there, including 2618 deaths.
A specialist team sent to China found that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between 23 January and 2 February, and has since been declining steadily, he said.
Ghebreyesus added that the death rate is between 2 per cent and 4 per cent in Wuhan city, where the virus originated, and 0.7 per cent outside Wuhan.
For people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, and people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.
Outside China, there are now 2074 cases confirmed in 28 countries, and 23 deaths, including a rapid rise in cases in Italy, South Korea and Iran.
UK preparations
In Italy, about 50,000 people are affected by a lockdown in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, after the country reported more than 160 cases 鈥� the largest number in Europe.
In the UK, 13 people have been diagnosed with covid-19, including four over the weekend who had been on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was held in quarantine in Japan.
On Monday, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister said: 鈥渨e are well prepared for UK cases, we are using tried and tested procedures to prevent further spread and the NHS is extremely well prepared and used to managing infections.鈥�
鈥淚n the UK, there鈥檚 no need to move towards mitigation strategies, as so far our containment policies are working,鈥� said Pankhania.
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