India is on track to overtake the聽US as the country with the highest number of coronavirus cases worldwide. With more than 5.56聽million recorded cases, India set a new record with 97,859 daily cases on 16聽September. It took just聽11 days for the total number of聽cases so far to rise from 4 to 5聽million, and it is likely to be just聽a聽matter of weeks before the country passes the US, which has聽some 6.85 million cases.
Given India鈥檚 population of about 1.38聽billion, however, the number of cases is comparatively low. On 22聽September, for instance, the seven-day average of daily confirmed cases in the US was 131聽per million people, compared with 65 per million in India. Deaths, too, currently totalling about 89,000 in India, are much聽lower than in the US, which聽is nearing 200,000.
Cases have soared since India eased a strict national lockdown in聽May, and some are worried that the spread of the virus into rural areas will increase case counts and聽fatalities. Two-thirds of the population lives in rural regions, which have only about a third of the country鈥檚 hospital beds.
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鈥淲e will have to gear up our services to delay the spread of the virus to rural areas,鈥� says K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 going to be absolutely critical.鈥�
Even states like Kerala, which won global praise for its handling of the virus in the initial months of the pandemic, are now seeing a聽rise in case numbers.
Much of the surge is ascribed to migrant workers returning to their home states since restrictions eased. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 when it became difficult to control,鈥� says Reddy.
On 14 September, India鈥檚 health minister Harsh Vardhan said that 1聽million tests are being conducted daily. 鈥淵ou do need some testing, but it cannot be the only public health strategy,鈥� says Reddy. 鈥淲e will also have to boost heathcare systems and improve connections with local communities.鈥�
There are fears that testing is聽inadequate and many cases are聽going undetected. Research published earlier this month by the Indian Council of Medical Research looked at the prevalence of antibodies in the population. It聽suggests that 0.73 per cent of adults in India had been infected聽by early May, equating to聽6.4 million people.
Despite the rising number of cases, it is unlikely that India will impose another lockdown. The economy contracted by 23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter, its聽worst decline since 1996.
On 21 September, the Taj Mahal opened its doors to tourists after six months of closure, just one of聽the measures the government has taken since June to revive the economy, along with opening up state borders, domestic flights, malls and gyms.
These measures are sending a wrong message that 鈥渢he worst is over鈥�, says Reddy. 鈥淥nly when the daily death rates are falling steadily for 10 days can we feel assured that聽the epidemic is coming down. Before that, if we start opening up, we are inviting trouble.鈥�
