
As vaccination numbers continue to climb, rich countries are beginning to journey back towards normality. That is also true of travel itself.
On 1 June, seven EU countries , allowing unimpeded travel between them as long as arrivals can prove they are either immune to SARS-CoV-2 or uninfected. Many other countries are also inching back to business as usual. But the world of travel is still a long way from its destination. So how do we get back to where we started? And if you plan to travel abroad over the coming months, what do you need to know?
The risks of returning to international travel as it was done before covid-19 are obvious: as people move about, so does the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hastening the spread of dangerous variants and potentially reigniting the pandemic in places where it was under control. For this reason, international travel has been severely restricted for more than a year. But governments around the world are now confronting the tough task of reopening their borders.
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鈥淲e can take measures to allow people to enter countries,鈥 says Jeffrey Lazarus at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Spain. 鈥淏ut countries have varying degrees of seriousness about how they approach controlling their borders.鈥
The trick, he says, is to be like Denmark, not like Spain. Lazarus travels frequently between the two because he lives and works in Spain but has strong ties to Denmark after a stint at the World Health Organization鈥檚 regional office in Copenhagen.
To get into Denmark from Spain, he has to show two negative tests, one done no more than 48 hours before arrival and the other done in the airport before going through passport control. A positive test would mean an immediate return to Spain, but two negatives allow him to enter the country. He then has to self-quarantine for 10 days, though on day four can do a PCR test and get out of quarantine if negative. The test is available for free, paid for by the Danish government.
Spain, on the other hand, officially requires international travellers to have a negative PCR test done at most 72 hours prior to arrival, but doesn鈥檛 rigorously check the results on entry. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a good-faith declaration,鈥 says Lazarus. 鈥淚 do it, but I鈥檓 not sure how many other people do.鈥
Denmark鈥檚 approach is in keeping with its pandemic management system. It is one of a handful of wealthy countries to have pursued a textbook strategy. 鈥淭hey followed the basic rules of pandemic control: test, trace and isolate, test at the borders and provide some support to isolate,鈥 says Lazarus. Its travel policy is essentially a continuation of this strategy.
According to a by Lazarus and his colleagues, the five wealthy countries that pursued even stricter 鈥渆limination鈥 strategies 鈥 Australia, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea 鈥 did better on measures of health, economic performance and civil liberties than countries that pursued 鈥渕itigation鈥 strategies.
Elimination countries continue to prosper and their essentially covid-free status is paying travel dividends. (with the exception of the state of Victoria, where covid-19 levels are high), for example, have formed a travel bubble allowing quarantine-free movement between the countries. Other elimination countries will probably create similar bubbles, says Lazarus.
The 鈥 being trialled for movement between seven countries including Denmark, but not Spain 鈥 is less stringent than the Danish system. It certifies that a person has either been vaccinated, has had a recent negative test, or has recovered from covid-19. People with such proof can move freely between Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece and Poland, with plans to extend the scheme to all of the EU in 1 July.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a very good idea because it restores some free movement and also incentivises people to get vaccinated,鈥 says at the French National Centre for Scientific Research in Grenoble, France.
Last year, Pradelski proposed a system called , which would allow travel between regions with low levels of covid-19 to prevent their economies 鈥 especially those based on tourism 鈥 from tanking. The proposal was adopted by a number of European governments: it informed Spain鈥檚 decision to open the Balearic Islands but not the mainland to German tourists last summer, for example. Green zoning is difficult to police within the borders of a country and will inevitably be porous, says Pradelski, but is preferable to letting countries鈥 entire economies be held back by their worst-affected regions.
Other countries are adopting a more ad-hoc system. England, for example, gives countries a , which can change depending on circumstances. Green indicates that a country is essentially safe to travel into England from, though a covid-19 test is compulsory on arrival. Travel from amber and red countries isn鈥檛 banned but arrivals must test and quarantine 鈥 either at home if coming from an amber country, or in a managed hotel if arriving from a red list country. Outbound travel is regulated by the destination country, although the government advises that people in England . The US has a .
The EU also makes recommendations about inward travel from non-EU countries. Last week, it decided not to put the UK on its 鈥渨hite list鈥 of safe countries because of the delta variant first identified in India. The UK is also rated as high risk by the US.
The introduction of delta into the UK shows that its red list isn鈥檛 working, says Christina Pagel at University College London. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know where the next dangerous variant is, absolutely no idea, so to have this idea that we can always react by putting selected countries on a red list is just not good enough.鈥
This somewhat ad-hoc system, with chopping and changing advice based on hazy criteria, is probably here to stay for a while, says Lazarus. 鈥淐ountries will open and close depending on the political climate or frankly what seems like whims,鈥 he says. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. 鈥淲e have two or three critical months 鈥 if we can just put strong measures in place while we get to 60, 70, 80 per cent fully vaccinated, then I think we can control it. It鈥檚 a pity that it is summer, which is when everyone wants to travel.鈥
If that鈥檚 you, then what should you do to travel as safely as possible? 鈥淚f you鈥檙e double vaccinated and you鈥檙e going to a low risk area, I would take the view that you鈥檙e going to be pretty safe as long as you abide by the usual, sensible rules,鈥 says Anthony Costello at University College London.
The agrees. It advises travellers to countries in its lowest risk category to get fully vaccinated, wear a mask, avoid crowds, stay at least six feet (1.8 metres) from people they aren鈥檛 traveling with, wash or sanitise their hands often and monitor their health for signs of illness.
But take 鈥渓ow risk鈥 or 鈥済reen light鈥 with a pinch of salt. For example, Portugal is currently on England鈥檚 green list, but in the CDC鈥檚 category. England is moving Portugal from green to amber on 8 June.
This contradiction happens because countries apply different criteria, says Lazarus. The . England bases its decisions on from the UK government鈥檚 Joint Biosecurity Centre, including .
It is hard to tell which is right, and not unusual for two countries to look at the same data and come to diametrically opposite conclusions, says Lazarus. 鈥淕ermany closed the border to the UK in the same week that Spain opened it, so clearly they don鈥檛 have the same assessment.鈥
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Article amended on 7 June 2021
This article has been updated to reflect the fact that Denmark鈥檚 covid-19 policy was not an 鈥渆limination鈥 strategy.