Around 25,000 delegates will descend on Glasgow, UK, for COP26, a climate conference like no other. As a key player at one of the most important climate summits that preceded it, Ed Miliband has a better insight than most on what those people will experience.
Miliband, who is currently shadow business secretary for the UK鈥檚 Labour Party, was the nation鈥檚 climate minister at the COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, which was widely seen as a flop for failing to make a breakthrough on global action to curb emissions.
With 197 countries and blocs party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which oversees the climate talks, Miliband likens the process to 190-dimensional chess.
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鈥淚 think people underestimate 鈥� and I fear the UK government has underestimated 鈥� the complexity of the process,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not like any other international summit, it鈥檚 not coming out with a pre-prepared communiqu茅. Of course, there鈥檚 been negotiations, but it鈥檚 a relatively chaotic process. It鈥檚 a process that requires unanimity.鈥�
He recalls the then UK prime minister Gordon Brown negotiating with other leaders through the night in 2009 to end a deadlock and agree a three-page document, the Copenhagen Accord. 鈥淕ordon鈥檚 parting words for me before he left for London the next morning were, 鈥業鈥檓 glad we鈥檝e got this, but don鈥檛 screw it up鈥�, except he didn鈥檛 use the words 鈥榮crew it up鈥�.鈥�
But late that day, things went awry. 鈥淭hat night, as I was going to bed, Pete [Betts, then the UK鈥檚 chief climate negotiator] rang me while I was standing in my pants in my hotel room and said 鈥榠t鈥檚 all going down the toilet. The agreement is an empty shell鈥�.鈥� Miliband, both worried about the geopolitical ramifications and Brown鈥檚 reaction, rushed back to the conference centre.
There, he found a Sudanese diplomat giving a speech comparing the accord to the Holocaust. With the UK鈥檚 microphone not working, Miliband took the US one to say: 鈥淲e can鈥檛 have come this far and just junk the agreement.鈥�
One infamous moment near the end of the Copenhagen summit was captured in a photo of a stony-faced Barack Obama, Angela Merkel and other world leaders crammed into a small, windowless room. 鈥淚 was on the edge of that picture, the story of my life,鈥� laughs Miliband, who was leader of Labour when it was defeated at the UK鈥檚 2015 general election. 鈥淚t felt quite anarchic. There was very little control over who was and who wasn鈥檛 in the room. I remember Obama being there and could see him thinking 鈥榳hat am I doing there鈥�.鈥�
On his overall memory of Copenhagen, Miliband says: 鈥淚t鈥檚 such a blur. My memory is no sleep. Endless meetings.鈥� He recalls nearly running into the then Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, at one point and asking him if he would increase his climate targets.
鈥淚t sounds a bit anarchic, but there鈥檚 a reason why it鈥檚 so difficult. This matters hugely to so many countries and you鈥檙e trying to do a really difficult thing [mitigate climate change],鈥� says Miliband.
COP26 faces its own set of challenges, mainly how to put the world more closely on track for the 2015 Paris Agreement鈥檚 promise to 鈥減ursue efforts鈥� to hold global warming to 1.5掳C and 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C. Current government plans would see global emissions rise by 16 per cent by 2030, rather than fall by 45 per cent as is needed for a chance to stay under 1.5掳C.
Miliband says: 鈥淚 think we鈥檙e a long way off where we need to be. And I think the truth is we鈥檝e got to push as hard as we possibly can to get the 2030 numbers up. But we鈥檝e got to tell the truth. This is a question of maths.鈥�
Being honest about the reality of emissions is crucial 鈥� not to 鈥渃ast a downer on everybody鈥�, he says, but to remind countries that they should commit to returning as soon as next year with new emissions plans, rather than waiting until 2025 as is currently agreed.
Nonetheless, he doesn鈥檛 think Glasgow will be a repeat of Copenhagen鈥檚 failings. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 comparable to Copenhagen. We鈥檙e not going to have another Copenhagen. The political will, the business will is too strong. It鈥檚 not going to fall apart.鈥�
