鈥淲HEN will leaders lead?鈥� asked Mia Mottley at the start of the COP26 climate summit on 1 November. More than 100 world leaders had gathered in Glasgow, UK, but it was the speech by the prime minister of Barbados that stood out. With Earth on course for 2.7掳C of global warming ahead of the landmark conference, Mottley warned that 2掳C would be a 鈥渄eath sentence鈥� for countries on the front line of climate change.
Impassioned speeches soon gave way to side deals on everything from deforestation to methane. They were non-binding, often missing key countries and replete with caveats. But they will make a difference, if followed with action. One analysis found they could lower 2030 emissions by 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, about 5 per cent of 2021鈥檚 levels.
These pledges saw the first week of the conference end with momentum, despite campaigner Greta Thunberg deriding the summit as a 鈥淧R exercise鈥�. An estimated 100,000 climate protesters marched through Glasgow鈥檚 streets on 6 November.
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鈥淚n a last, unexpected twist, India intervened to weaken pledges over ending coal use鈥�
Climate adaptation was meant to be the official theme at the start of the second week, but the surprise arrival of former US president Barack Obama, followed by US politicians Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nancy Pelosi, meant that the US held much of the focus instead. While acknowledging progress in Glasgow, Obama said: 鈥淲e are nowhere near where we need to be.鈥�
The first draft of a final 鈥渃over decision鈥� 鈥� the agreement from the summit 鈥� arrived before sunrise on 10 November. It included plans to phase out coal and subsidies for fossil fuels, and 鈥渦rged鈥� nations to submit more ambitious plans in 2022, in a push to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement鈥檚 goals of keeping warming 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C and pursuing 1.5掳C.
COP26 was in the 鈥渉ard yards鈥� of negotiations, as UK prime minister Boris Johnson said later that day, with differences over finance and more. Even the usually upbeat Johnson struggled to explain how to unblock the impasse.
Yet only an hour later, China鈥檚 special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua lifted the mood with a surprise announcement of a US-China agreement to raise the climate ambition of both countries in the 2020s. The declaration was light on substance, but it marked a vital shift after US president Joe Biden accused Chinese president Xi Jinping of a 鈥渂ig mistake鈥� in not attending COP26.
A new draft decision failed to materialise on 11 November, and it was reported that one bloc of countries had suggested deleting the entire section on cutting emissions. In the ensuing lull, people watched the cricket at the conference鈥檚 Pakistan pavilion. The Mexican delegation offered COP26 president Alok Sharma a bottle of tequila if the talks finished on time, at 6pm on 12 November. A new alliance of nations working to end future oil and gas extraction was launched.
COP26鈥檚 crunch came in the last 48 hours. It began with weakened language: the 鈥減hase out鈥� would now apply to fossil fuels that are 鈥渋nefficient鈥� and to coal use that was 鈥渦nabated鈥�, giving room for its use with carbon capture and storage. Countries were now 鈥渞equested鈥� instead of 鈥渦rged鈥� to revise their plans next year, sparking debate over the minutiae of which is the stronger verb.
The talks spilled over into 13 November. At a meeting on the final proposed text, nations listed grievances. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not perfect,鈥� said Tina Stege of the Marshall Islands. But none rejected it outright.
In a last, unexpected twist, at the final meeting to approve the decision, India鈥檚 environment minister Bhupender Yadav intervened. Coal should see a 鈥減hase-down鈥� not 鈥減hase-out鈥�, he said. China backed the change, but Switzerland, speaking on behalf of six countries, was applauded for expressing 鈥減rofound disappointment鈥� at the watered-down wording. The European Union said 鈥渃oal has no future鈥�. Stege said the change 鈥渉urts deeply鈥�. But, in a bid not to lose all that had been agreed, no one blocked the change.
Sharma said he was 鈥渄eeply sorry鈥� at the turn of events and stopped mid-sentence, visibly emotional. 鈥淗earing no objections, it is so decided,鈥� he said, and his gavel came down. The Glasgow Climate Pact was sealed.
