杏吧原创

JUST days after it was agreed on by nearly 200 countries at the COP26 summit in November, the reverberations of the Glasgow Climate Pact were being felt.

In the immediate aftermath of the conference, the price of carbon in the European Union鈥檚 carbon market hit a record high of 鈧�66 a tonne. Scotland鈥檚 first minister Nicola Sturgeon came out against a new North Sea oil field, putting more pressure on the UK government to reconsider its approval. The European Commission set out a draft law to block imports of beef and other commodities if they are linked to deforestation.

Yet it will take a while for the Glasgow Climate Pact鈥檚 eye-catching promise to 鈥減hase-down鈥� coal to be fully adopted. For example, in October, China鈥檚 coal output hit the highest level since March 2015.

It may take even longer for the effects of the pact鈥檚 pledge to phase out 鈥渋nefficient fossil fuel subsidies鈥� to be felt, judging by the G7鈥檚 slow progress on a past commitment to end them.

The achievements of the deal reached in Glasgow, UK, will play out over decades to come. Next year will be the first big test. By the end of 2022, countries are meant to deliver on COP26鈥檚 鈥渞equest鈥� 鈥� diplomatic language that amounts to a commitment 鈥� to issue better 2030 emissions reduction plans.

鈥淚t will take a while for the Glasgow Climate Pact鈥檚 promise to 鈥榩hase-down鈥� coal to be fully adopted鈥�

Those plans must be aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement鈥檚 goals of holding global warming to 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels and well below 2掳C. Current plans by Australia, Brazil and Indonesia are among those rated 鈥渉ighly insufficient鈥� and in line with a 4掳C future by independent analysts. Countries that have already set a stretching target, such as the UK鈥檚 plan of a 68 per cent emissions cut by 2030, aren鈥檛 expected to upgrade their ambitions.

India announced new goals at COP26, including sourcing half of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and will be expected to submit them in a formal plan to the UN. Officially, it should have done that by the end of 2020.

One issue that lower-income countries will watch closely in 2022 is whether higher-income nations are on track to deliver the $100 billion a year of climate finance they had promised by 2020 and that they expressed 鈥渄eep regret鈥� at missing. The figure is now expected to be hit in 2023, though US climate envoy John Kerry said in Glasgow that he thinks it may be met earlier.

COP26 resolved outstanding rules of the Paris Agreement on transparency, time frames for emissions targets and a new global carbon market, which will now take years to be established. Eyes will also turn to the formation of a new independent group, announced by UN secretary general Ant脫nio Guterres at the summit, to scrutinise net-zero pledges by the private sector.