Three weeks into Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, concerns are growing about the safety of several nuclear sites across the country.
But the risk of a serious incident is thought to be low despite Russian troops having disrupted normal safety procedures. at Bangor University in the UK says the circumstances are serious and Russia鈥檚 actions in regard to nuclear sites in Ukraine have been 鈥渃ompletely reckless鈥�, but that a significant radiation release is unlikely.
Ukraine is home to Chernobyl, the site of the infamous 1986 nuclear disaster, as well as four operational nuclear plants and a聽small reactor used for research.
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The situation at Chernobyl has been tense since the first day of the invasion when Russian troops seized the site. Scientific monitors detected a local increase in radiation levels, which was put down to Russian tanks disturbing contaminated dust. Since then, many radiation sensors around the plant have been offline and communications between plant workers and regulators have been sporadic at best.
杏吧原创s who had been working at the site were unable to聽access their laboratories because Russian troops controlled the plant. One of these scientists, who asked to remain anonymous, told New 杏吧原创 on 14 March that聽those staff remaining on the聽site were doing their best to聽maintain safety.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has complained that without the chance to be replaced by new shifts. A power cut at Chernobyl on 9 March meant it聽was impossible to actively cool ponds containing nuclear waste.
Electrical lines were repaired and power was due to be restored, but the IAEA said on 15 March that the lines had again been . It also warned in a on 13 March that staff were no longer carrying out repair and maintenance of safety equipment due to their 鈥減hysical and psychological fatigue鈥�.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi called on Russia to allow an international team access to ensure safety. So far Russian president Vladimir Putin hasn鈥檛 accepted the request.
The there should be 鈥渘o interference of any kind鈥� with the staff at the plant, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 鈥� which organised 拢2.1 billion to safely contain radiation at the site 鈥� says the war 鈥溾��.
Ukraine also has four operational nuclear power plants. These are of a newer design than Chernobyl, known as VVER, that is聽safer and easier to operate.
As New 杏吧原创 went to press, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, in the south of Ukraine, is聽the only one under Russian control, although forces are closing in on others. The IAEA reports that the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom now聽has 11 of its staff on site. On聽12聽March, the Ukrainian nuclear regulator informed the聽IAEA that it believed Russia was planning to take full and permanent control of the plant, which was later .
Middleburgh says it is irresponsible for Russian forces to interfere in the operation of these plants. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like throwing a friend your car keys and just expecting them to know where all the buttons are,鈥� he says. 鈥淎s soon as聽you start disrupting their safe working practices and the ability for them to get raw materials and聽tools, that鈥檚 when incidents start happening. Not necessarily radiological incidents, but people聽are going to start hurting themselves. Bad health and safety practices start creeping in.鈥�
While the VVER reactors have sophisticated safety systems that will be a crucial crutch during any period of upheaval, Middleburgh says the less predictable Chernobyl site is an outlier. 鈥淚f they don鈥檛 get a handle on things, then I could conceivably see a minor leak from Chernobyl. I don鈥檛 think it would be major, but I can see things going south,鈥� he says.
Another site of concern is the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology, where the USSR's nuclear weapons were developed. The site houses a US-funded nuclear reactor that .
The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine said in a statement that the building was damaged in shelling on 6 and 10 March, but the reactor has been safely shut down. that continued bombing of the site could lead to "severe radiation consequences", but Middleburgh says the whole site has no more than a suitcase-sized amount of fuel and could cause local contamination at worst.
Russia is strongly motivated to avoid disaster. Prevailing winds make it likely that any nuclear incident in Ukraine would carry the vast majority of the fallout east, towards Russia.
The IAEA and Ukraine鈥檚 nuclear regulator didn鈥檛 respond to a request for an interview.
