If land is used to grow plants for bioenergy, it can鈥檛 be used to grow food or carbon-storing forests, nor can it provide a habitat for wildlife. The European Union鈥檚 proposed plan to reach net-zero carbon emissions fails to take account of this, meaning it could have unintended and undesirable consequences, such as increasing global deforestation and reducing biodiversity, according to a new .
鈥淭he plans assume that converting land to energy use has no cost, which is pretty amazing given the context we are in, where we are massively clearing more land to produce more food and where climate strategies require that we reforest land,鈥� says at Princeton University.
The EU has committed itself to achieving 鈥渃limate neutrality鈥� by 2050. As an intermediate step, it is aiming to reduce emissions by 55 per cent by 2030. Last year, the European Commission unveiled a package of proposed laws, , to achieve this.
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The stated aims of Fit for 55 include storing more carbon in forests and restoring biodiversity. However, the proposed measures would increase bioenergy use in the EU 鈥� whose main source of 鈥渞enewable鈥� energy is already bioenergy.
Modelling by the European Commission has estimated that the plans would require 22 million hectares of land to be devoted to energy crops, equivalent to a fifth of the EU鈥檚 cropland today, says Searchinger. It also estimates that at least 10 million hectares of semi-natural grasslands will have to be converted to growing energy crops or to highly managed forests.
What鈥檚 more, Searchinger thinks this modelling underestimates the amount of land required.
The overall effect would be to greatly increase the EU鈥檚 global land footprint 鈥� the area of land required to grow its food, energy crops and wood 鈥� leading to more deforestation and biodiversity loss. To meet climate goals, it is essential to reduce land footprints, says Searchinger.
鈥淚f Europe increases its land footprint, we鈥檙e in really bad shape,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t could fix it just by fixing the accounting for bioenergy.鈥�
By importing more food and wood from other countries, the EU will still be able to claim it is storing more carbon in its own forests. In fact, the EU is already burning wood from other countries and claiming it as a reduction in carbon emissions.
鈥淭he EU is giving incentives to power plants and factories all over Europe to burn wood,鈥� says Searchinger. 鈥淚f you don鈥檛 want people to cut down trees, don鈥檛 pay people to cut down trees.鈥�
He and his team have calculated that by reducing biofuel usage to 2010 levels and boosting yields, Europe could free up 16.5 million hectares of land for growing carbon-storing forests and restoring biodiversity. With moderate reductions in milk and meat consumption, up to 30 million hectares could become available.
鈥淚n general, Fit for 55 does have lots of positive aspects,鈥� says at the non-profit Regulatory Assistance Project. But he agrees that it relies too heavily on bioenergy.
There are two issues with that, says Rosenow. Firstly, the sustainability of bioenergy is questionable. Secondly, what truly sustainable bioenergy there is should be saved for sectors where there are no alternatives.
For instance, under current plans, two-thirds of 鈥渞enewable鈥� energy for heating in the EU would still come from bioenergy by 2030, says Rosenow. The focus should be on electrification instead, but the incentives in Fit for 55 don鈥檛 favour this over biomass, he says.
Heating homes with wood is also a major source of air pollution, leading to 鈧�17 billion in healthcare costs in the EU and UK, according to a study published this week.
A spokesperson for the European Commission said it doesn鈥檛 comment on documents that haven鈥檛 yet been published, despite New 杏吧原创 supplying an advance copy of the analysis.
A spokesperson for the European Council said it couldn鈥檛 comment while the Fit for 55 proposals are still under discussion by the council, and suggested that New 杏吧原创 contact the European Commission for comment.
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