A day before the UK recorded its hottest temperature ever in a climate change-fuelled heatwave that reached 40掳C, the UK government lost a legal battle over its blueprint for cutting the carbon dioxide emissions that drive such extreme weather.
David Holgate ruled on 18 July that the government鈥檚 Net Zero Strategy was unlawful, following a judicial review brought by three groups: ClientEarth, Friends of the Earth and the Good Law Project.
The flagship plan was deemed unlawful in two ways. The first is that the minister who signed off on the strategy, Greg Hands, was deemed to have not had enough information to know that its policies and proposals 鈥� such as backing a new nuclear power station 鈥� would enable carbon targets to be met.
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The second is the strategy failed to offer sufficient detail on how much individual policies would cut emissions, which is crucial information to enable scrutiny. Both failings fell short of obligations under the , a landmark law that many countries have looked to emulate.
James Cameron, a barrister and entrepreneur, says the judgment is a big moment. 鈥淲e are now entering a time where we need the law to represent our interests as a society in survival and human flourishing,鈥� he says. A UK government spokesperson says: 鈥淭he Net Zero Strategy remains government policy and has not been quashed.鈥�
Nonetheless, the ruling will pose a major task for the next prime minister when they are announced on 5 September, as well as for whoever is appointed energy secretary. Holgate鈥檚 judgment orders the government to publish a report by the end of March 2023 that meets the Climate Change Act鈥檚 obligations. That means quantifying the emissions that individual policies will contribute to future carbon targets.
鈥淚t鈥檚 basically telling the government: provide the information which the current Net Zero Strategy lacks on the impact of the policies you鈥檙e talking about,鈥� says Tony Bosworth at Friends of the Earth.
Tim Lord at the Tony Blair Institute, a former senior civil servant, that the ruling was very significant in one sense: 鈥渋t presents an incoming PM and energy secretary with a big challenge (or opportunity, if you prefer): they will have to put their name to a new net zero strategy by March 2023. No hiding behind the current one.鈥�
The government is understood to hold a spreadsheet of the emissions savings of the individual policies, but has repeatedly refused to release it following freedom of information requests by New 杏吧原创. The Information Commissioner鈥檚 Office is currently considering an appeal over the refusal, and MPs have urged the government to reconsider its stance.
Exactly what the new strategy by the government will look like remains to be seen. It is most likely that it will be an updated version of an existing October 2021 document deemed inadequate in Holgate鈥檚 ruling, or theoretically it could be an entirely new strategy. Either way, Bosworth says Holgate鈥檚 ruling gave considerable weight to the views of independent advisory group the Climate Change Committee (CCC) on the strategy, strengthening its role.
The CCC last month found that only 39 per cent of the emissions cuts required to meet carbon targets for the mid 2030s are backed by credible policies. Most of the rest are endangered by a 鈥減olicy gap鈥� or 鈥渟ignificant risks鈥�. The fallout of yesterday鈥檚 court verdict is clear: the government will have to rapidly strengthen its plans for cutting emissions and be much more transparent in the process.
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