As Europe braces for winter, its nations are aiming to reduce their electricity use in the hope of avoiding blackouts as energy prices soar and temperatures drop. But how easily might countries cut consumption, and will they succeed in doing so?
On 30 September, European Union energy ministers agreed to聽try to reduce electricity use between 1聽November and the end of March by 10 per cent, based on average usage in the past five years (excluding 2020 due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic).
According to an analysis by energy research group of the 14 EU countries for which data was available (see 鈥淧owering down鈥�, below), the Netherlands had already exceeded the target in August this year, using 14 per cent less electricity compared with the country鈥檚 average for the same month. This was more than double the 6 per cent average August electricity usage reduction across all 14 nations.
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The Netherlands鈥檚 success was partly due to fertiliser factories and oil refineries curtailing energy-intensive operations in response to high fuel prices, which are 鈥渢he best signal to use less energy鈥�, says Ryan Alexander, European power market analyst at Aurora.
Following the Netherlands, Greece saw the second highest electricity demand reduction, of聽12聽per cent, in August. This is聽probably because people are more聽sensitive to energy prices in聽Greece compared with other EU聽countries, as their energy prices are higher than the EU average while wages are lower. The聽Greek summer also wasn鈥檛 as聽hot as average, which lowered air conditioning demands.
A key help for the Netherlands may have been an energy-saving campaign called 鈥淔lip the Switch鈥� that began in April, focusing on聽turning off lights, swapping filament light bulbs for energy-efficient LED ones, limiting hot showers to 5聽minutes and turning heating thermostats in buildings down to 19掳C (66掳F).
Surveys indicate the campaign聽has raised awareness of聽ways to cut gas and electricity use, said energy advisor for the Netherlands Lucas Boehl茅 at an EU聽energy-saving workshop on 28聽September. Similar measures have been adopted in Spain, Italy, France and Germany, where lights are also being switched off early in聽shops and public monuments.
Spain saw an 8 per cent reduction聽in electricity demand in聽August, suggesting its energy-saving campaign is working. Neighbouring Portugal, which shares a gas price cap with Spain, only launched similar measures in聽September and saw just a 3 per cent reduction in August.
France on alert
While it is currently impossible to assess the precise energy-saving impacts of each behavioural policy, there are messaging lessons to learn from the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, says Alexander. 鈥淐ountries should be aiming for the level of publicity we had with covid case numbers.鈥�
In that vein, France has rolled out a national alert system, broadcast on TV after weather bulletins. This 鈥淓cowatt forecast鈥� labels the next four days green, amber or red depending on the expected strain on the electricity system. People can also sign up to聽receive alerts by email or text. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a model which has some promise if it could be rolled out to聽other [EU] member states as well,鈥� says Alexander.
In August, before Ecowatt appeared on TV screens, France saw a 5 per cent cut in electricity consumption, lagging behind the EU-wide average. This may partly be due to its government capping electricity price rises to 4 per cent this year. 鈥淭he challenge for policy-makers is providing incentives for households and businesses to save power and gas聽while at the same time shielding them from the high prices,鈥� says Alexander.
Poland, Denmark and Germany are among the countries that will need to do more heavy lifting to hit EU targets, according to the analysis, having seen the lowest energy reductions, of between 2聽to聽5 per cent, this August.
Poland may especially struggle to reach EU energy-saving targets due to its high reliance on cheap coal, which made up 69 per cent of聽its electricity mix in 2020, reducing the impact of high gas聽prices.
One reason Denmark and Germany鈥檚 electricity reduction in聽August fell short of the EU average is that they have more energy-efficient power plants that聽capture the heat produced alongside electricity generation, says Alexander. This lessens price pressures and hence incentives to聽cut use, as these plants use less fuel to output the same energy, compared with plants that lose more energy through heat loss.
鈥淐ountries鈥� performance in August on this measure will not necessarily imply the same results from November or December onwards,鈥� says Alexander. 鈥淏ut one key takeaway [from these figures] is that price signals alone have already managed to reduce demand significantly across member states.鈥�
at University College London says he would be 鈥渁mazed if countries fail to reach EU targets, simply because of the high prices鈥�. He also thinks the weather is the single biggest factor influencing the risk of winter energy shortages. 鈥淚f it鈥檚 an average or warmer-than-average winter, I think Europe鈥檚 going to be fine. If聽we have very prolonged cold spells, then obviously things could聽be tricky.鈥�
Unlike the EU, the UK government hasn鈥檛 committed to聽energy-reduction targets. It has also previously refused to launch an energy-saving behavioural campaign, but on 12 October, UK prime minister Liz Truss said the government was 鈥渨orking on a聽plan to help companies and individuals use energy more efficiently鈥�. Further details of the project have yet to be released, despite National Grid ESO 鈥� which operates the electricity grid in England, Scotland and Wales 鈥� recently warning of potential 3-hour blackouts this winter.
鈥淚t鈥檚 extraordinary to me that the UK government hasn鈥檛 gotten an information campaign and indeed has not set up an energy-efficiency advice service with a few hotlines that people can call and that could give people decent advice,鈥� says Ekins.
Failing to seize the chance to聽educate the public about energy聽reduction could also have聽long-term implications. All governments already needed to cut consumption to meet climate change targets, and a new zeal for聽energy efficiency could be a benefit to come out of the crisis.
鈥淚n the longer term, I must say,聽I鈥檓 pretty positive,鈥� says Ekins. While carbon emissions are likely to rise in the short term as nations make more use of coal-fired power聽stations, energy reduction campaigns may ultimately speed cuts this decade. 鈥淥bviously, Europe is a relatively small part of global emissions, but I think that, potentially for Europe, this could be positive for our 2030 emission targets rather than the reverse.鈥�
Unique opportunity
There is only so much that can be聽achieved by asking people to聽switch devices off, however. Ultimately, reducing emissions will also require measures such as聽electrifying transport and industrial processes and installing better building insulation and heat pumps. It will also rely on countries making sure they move away from gas infrastructure that has been newly built to deal with the current crisis, says Ekins. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a danger we keep using gas for longer than we would have.聽We need to avoid this.鈥�
Alexander is also hopeful that聽increased deployment of renewables before 2030 could help counteract shorter-term increases in carbon emissions that will occur over the next few years.
Once gas prices fall, Ekins thinks governments will have a unique opportunity to enforce carbon taxes to help reduce consumption of carbon-based energy, as people will have become more used to the idea of paying a premium for gas. 鈥淭his would be an amazing opportunity to really cut our gas consumption in the medium and long-term,鈥� he says.
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