杏吧原创

It has been more than two decades since the issue of 鈥渓oss and damage鈥� was first raised at a UN climate summit.

Since then, talk has come cheap. Finding a way to force high-income countries to produce some cash to help vulnerable countries manage the impacts of climate change has proved much, much more difficult.

But at this year鈥檚 COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, everything is different. For the first time, loss and damage is at the heart of the conference agenda.

鈥淭his is an issue whose time has now come,鈥� the UN鈥檚 climate chief, , told the media at the summit on 10 November.

Why now? The debate over loss and damage payments 鈥� or climate reparations 鈥� to countries struck by extreme weather is an intensely political issue. But it is academic research that has added weight to the arguments of climate justice campaigners.

For years, it was almost impossible to say whether any particular extreme weather event was fuelled by climate change, and therefore to lay some of the blame for the resulting devastation at the door of the most polluting nations.

But thanks to huge advances in weather attribution science, the link between extreme weather and climate change is now clear.

For the past decade, researchers have worked to develop more sophisticated models and standardise calculations to produce faster and more accurate analysis of climate change鈥檚 fingerprint on extreme weather.

Hundreds of attribution studies have now been published in academic literature and the results are widely covered by the world鈥檚 media. 鈥淣owadays, we have more peer-reviewed methods, but also more and better model simulations as well as longer observational records,鈥� says Sjoukje Philip, co-founder of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, which specialises in real-time attribution analysis of extreme weather events.

In the past few weeks alone, Philip and her colleagues have determined that soil droughts across Europe, North America and China this year were made five to six times more likely by human-caused climate change, while the heavy rain that led to Pakistan鈥檚 devastating floods was made up to 50 per cent more intense. Yet more analysis is under way on the role of climate change in the Sahel drought and Nigerian floods.

The fact that WWA researchers can now respond so quickly to real-world events is an important factor driving the policy conversation around climate impacts, says Philip. 鈥淭his allows us to inform the public soon after an extreme weather event and allows decision-makers to put it on the agenda and to act more rapidly,鈥� she says.

As the science has progressed, the influence of weather attribution on the climate policy debate has grown. The work of the WWA and others has helped to force the issue of loss and damage onto the UN agenda, at the International Water Management Institute in New Delhi, India, told reporters at COP27. 鈥淭he scientific advance that really helps us in the cause for furthering the loss and damage agenda is really this attribution science,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hat really helps in quantifying loss and damages and relating it to climate change.鈥�

Researchers are even working on ways to 鈥� progress that could see individual countries targeted for climate liability.

The limits of adaptation

Weather attribution is just one strand of the scientific research informing the policy debate on loss and damage.

Another developing field of study is to consider loss and damage as what happens when a populated region hits a 鈥渉ard limit鈥� of survivability 鈥� when sea levels rise so high they drown small islands, for example, or when a city or region hits a 鈥渨et bulb鈥� temperature 鈥� a measure of heat and humidity 鈥� that the human body struggles to endure.

鈥淲ith scenarios of intensifying climate impacts, there will be more and more places in the world where adaptation hits limits, and that鈥檚 where loss and damage starts,鈥� says at the United Nations University in Bonn, Germany. 鈥淭he science of loss and damage really looks at those places in the world where adaptation limits are being approached.鈥�

Research to date on the limits to adaptation is thin on the ground. 鈥淎s of yet, there is no global synthesis and assessment of documented limits to adaptation,鈥� according to which complained of a 鈥減aucity鈥� of academic studies that provide 鈥渄etailed information on how limits may be experienced and when鈥�.

But the research agenda is hotting up, says van der Geest. 鈥淭en years ago, nobody was doing research on what the limits of adaptation look like,鈥� he says. Now, there are 鈥渁ll kinds of research findings trickling in from all parts of the world鈥�, he says, much of it with a growing focus on the social, cultural and health impacts on a community when a hard limit to adaptation is reached.

Not everyone will agree that political talks on loss and damage should be tied to the limits of adaptation. It sounds an awful lot like giving up on low-income countries, says at the University of Oxford: 鈥淎 Global South perspective would be: well, don鈥檛 say that adaptation is no longer possible because we still want to see the funding, we still want to see the projects and we also want to see the efforts put in to help us trying to adapt.鈥�

Sign up to our free Fix the Planet newsletter to get a dose of climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox, every Thursday