WHEN it comes to global warming, every notch on the thermometer is vital. But one temperature rise has been etched into our minds for years: 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels. Passing this threshold may trigger multiple climate 鈥渢ipping points鈥� that could change the planet irreversibly. The arrival of an El Ni帽o weather event and our poor efforts at cutting greenhouse gas emissions mean we could exceed 1.5掳C of warming as soon as next year. This is 鈥渦ncharted territory鈥� for Earth鈥檚 climate, warns the World Meteorological Organization.
Uncharted, perhaps, but certainly not unknown. For years, scientists have been studying what will happen beyond 1.5掳C and now we are almost there, we have a bird鈥檚-eye view of the disaster about to strike (see our cover feature 鈥淭he uncomfortable reality of life on Earth after we breach 1.5掳C鈥�).
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So what now? We need to use this failure 鈥� and it is a historic one 鈥� to refocus climate action. Forget trying to prevent us from crossing the 1.5掳C threshold. The aim now should be to pull us out of these 鈥渉ell years鈥� as quickly as possible.
With the right kind of action, we can reverse course before permanent damage is baked into the climate system. That means cutting greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible, by phasing out oil and gas, reining in animal agriculture and plugging methane leaks.
But carbon cuts alone won鈥檛 be enough. We need to go beyond net-zero emissions and enter a world of net-negative pollution. Healthy forests, peat bogs and mangroves will be central to this endeavour, providing wildlife-friendly carbon sinks. In the oceans, we will need kelp forests and seagrass meadows as underwater carbon sponges. Technological advances will also be crucial. Direct air capture 鈥� based on machines that suck carbon dioxide straight out of the air 鈥� is one of our best bets for carbon drawdown.
Yet these machines will need hefty public and private investment to become cheap and abundant. Passing 1.5掳C must be the trigger not just for disastrous tipping points, but also for us to be smarter and more resourceful than ever.
