杏吧原创

Shell is the latest oil and gas company to row back on plans to cut its production of fossil fuels, abandoning a target to cut oil production each year for the rest of the decade.

In an on 14 June, Shell said it would maintain its level of oil production at 1.4 million barrels per day through to 2030 鈥� slightly lower than its output of 1.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year. It also said it would grow its natural gas business, as part of plans to boost financial returns for investors. In 2021, it promised to cut its oil output by 1 to 2 per cent a year over until 2030.

The announcement comes four months after rival BP scaled back plans to cut the carbon emissions associated with the use of its products. In 2019, BP said it would cut its so-called 鈥渟cope 3鈥� emissions by 35 to 40 per cent by 2030, but in an update in February, it announced it was now targeting a 20 to 30 per cent cut, with plans to invest in new fossil fuel production to meet continued demand for its products.

鈥淲e need to invest in today鈥檚 energy system 鈥� which is predominantly an oil and gas system,鈥� BP CEO Bernard Looney said in February.

Both firms say they remain committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, the target adopted by many businesses and national governments aiming to give the world a chance of limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels, the goal agreed in the Paris Agreement.

But promising to increase fossil fuel production in the short term while targeting net-zero emissions by 2050 is 鈥渟cientifically incoherent鈥�, says at the University of Exeter, UK, and threatens global climate targets.

It boils down to the 鈥渃limate maths鈥� that underpins the Paris Agreement, says at the University of Oxford. There is a finite amount of additional carbon we can pump into the atmosphere before the 1.5掳C goal slips out of reach, he says. (IPCC), that remaining 鈥渃arbon budget鈥� was 500 gigatonnes in 2018. 鈥淧eak temperature is primarily the result of total cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over time,鈥� says Smith.

To stay under this limit, the world must cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, scientists have calculated. Delaying emissions cuts will blow through this remaining carbon budget well before 2050, extinguishing any chance of meeting the 1.5掳C temperature goal without needing a dramatic scale-up of largely untested 鈥渃arbon drawdown鈥� technologies.

Already the world is behind schedule on the emissions cuts needed for 1.5掳C to be achieved. If current rates continue, the 1.5掳C carbon budget will be blown by 2032, . Adding new oil and gas production to the mix simply adds fuel to this fire, says at University College London. 鈥淎ny increase in production is completely counter to the science,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here is no justification for a country, or a company, increasing the production of fossil fuels.鈥�

The uncomfortable reality of life on Earth after we breach 1.5掳C

Passing 1.5掳C of global warming isn't just a political disaster, it will have dire consequences for us all, as those living on the front line already know

To demonstrate credibility on climate change, both Maslin and Smith said oil and gas firms should immediately halt all investment in new fossil fuel projects, and instead direct their huge profits into clean energy technologies. Both the IPCC and the International Energy Agency warn new oil, gas and coal development is incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5掳C.

Shell told New 杏吧原创 it remains committed to becoming a net-zero business by 2050, although it said in a that this depends on wider society becoming net-zero in this time. It denies it has abandoned its goal to reduce oil output this decade, arguing that it had in fact already met the goal with the sale of an oil project in Texas in 2021, which has reduced Shell鈥檚 annual output of oil by 21 per cent.

鈥淥ur target of a reduction in liquids production by 2030 has not changed. We鈥檝e just met it eight years early,鈥� a spokesperson said. They added that Shell will invest up to $15 billion by 2025 in low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, hydrogen, electric vehicle charging and carbon capture, to support its net-zero goal.

BP said in its communications聽it is acting to support an 鈥渙rderly鈥� transition to net-zero emissions, and is investing 拢8 billion by 2030 in green technologies, including renewables and electric vehicle charging.