Ears perked up across the tech sector as US vice president Kamala Harris spoke the words 鈥渜uantum computing鈥� during a presidential debate in September 鈥� the first mention of the term by any US presidential candidate. It was brief but signalled that science and technology are playing a key role in the contest for the presidency. Harris and her opponent, Donald Trump, are both relatively known quantities, each having spent four recent years in the White House. Their approaches differ drastically on public health and climate, but dovetail more than they may like to admit when it comes to the race for global tech leadership.聽So, what would a win for either candidate mean for the future of AI, healthcare and combatting climate change in the US?
How the candidates differ on climate
No matter who wins the election, the climate policies of the next US president will be shaped by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the most consequential US climate law to date. However, both candidates鈥� climate policies are low on detail.
As vice president, Harris cast the聽tie-breaking vote to pass the IRA, which set aside more than $400 billion aimed at reviving American manufacturing and聽slashing greenhouse gas emissions. Two years later, the effects of the law are emerging across the US economy, with billions of dollars flowing to聽clean聽energy projects.
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According to a bevy of models,聽by 2035 the US is set to聽cut聽emissions to nearly half of聽what they聽were in 2005, thanks mainly to聽the聽IRA, along with a slate of other recent regulations. Harris, who was an early supporter of this聽so-called Green New Deal and聽has referred to climate change聽as an 鈥渆xistential threat鈥�, is聽campaigning on continuing these low-emissions policies. But聽she has been criticised by climate advocates for touting record-high US oil and gas production and reversing her support for a ban on fracking.
Trump has said he would seek聽to聽overturn parts of the IRA. He has also said he would boost fossil fuel production聽鈥� chants of聽鈥淒rill, baby, drill!鈥� are a standard聽at Trump rallies.
Researchers have , using current policies as a proxy for Harris and ascribing to Trump the聽policies laid out in Project 2025, a proposed blueprint for the next Republican president written by many of his former advisors. Project 2025 seeks a full repeal of聽the IRA, among other environmental rollbacks.
Energy Innovation, a think tank聽in California, , US聽emissions would continue to聽fall slightly due to the existing momentum of cheap clean-energy sources, but at a much slower rate than under existing policies. A聽Project 2025 scenario would see聽the US emit the equivalent of聽almost 1.75 billion tonnes more聽carbon dioxide by 2030 compared with the trend expected under current policies聽鈥� roughly equivalent to a 1 per cent increase in global emissions. However, the聽current policies likely to be continued by Harris would also leave US emissions far above targets to limit global warming to聽well below 2掳C.
A second Trump presidency would probably also mean a major shift in how the US聽participates in global climate action. In 2017, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, and he could do so again. Even if聽he doesn鈥檛, weaker domestic climate policy could reduce the US鈥檚 wider influence on the issue. 鈥淭he US probably loses leverage in their ability to say, 鈥楥hina, Europe, India, you need to set aggressive emissions targets,鈥欌�夆�� says at Rhodium Group, an energy think tank in New York.
Healthcare is a battleground issue
The defining health issue of this election is abortion. The right to an abortion was protected in the US for nearly half a century until the landmark Roe v Wade decision was overturned in 2022, leaving each state to decide whether and when to allow it. The US is now : 21 states have passed laws curtailing access to the procedure, with 13 enacting a full ban and 8 more limiting it to the first 6, 12, 15 or 18 weeks of pregnancy.
Harris and Trump are sharply divided on the matter. Harris has vowed to never allow a national abortion ban to become law. Her campaign says she would restore abortion rights nationwide, but this is only possible with support from lawmakers in Congress. Her running mate, Tim Walz, also advocates for abortion rights.
Trump has flip-flopped on the issue. During his 2016 presidential campaign, he supported a national abortion ban after 20 weeks of pregnancy. He also campaigned to overturn Roe v Wade聽鈥� a promise he upheld after appointing three Supreme Court justices that helped repeal the ruling.
But during the September debate, Trump said he wouldn鈥檛 sign a national abortion ban 鈥渂ecause we鈥檝e gotten what everybody wanted聽鈥� Democrats, Republicans and everybody else聽鈥� and every legal scholar wanted it to be brought back into the states鈥�. He refused to clarify in the debate if he would veto a nationwide ban.
Many of Trump鈥檚 allies have taken a clearer stance. His running mate, JD Vance, has previously expressed support for a 15-week national abortion ban, and Project 2025 suggests various measures to聽restrict abortion access. This includes enforcing the 1873 Comstock Act, which prohibits sending abortion-related drugs and medical equipment through the mail. Roe v Wade negated this, but with its repeal, the president could choose to enforce the law, says at the Guttmacher Institute, an NGO in Washington DC. However, Trump has said he has 鈥渘othing to do with Project 2025鈥�. His campaign didn鈥檛 respond to New 杏吧原创 about whether he supports enforcing the Comstock Act.
Another key healthcare issue in聽the campaign is the cost of prescription drugs. While both Harris and Trump have said they聽would lower the price of prescription medications if elected, each has proposed to do聽so聽through different measures, says at the RAND Corporation think tank in Virginia.
The Harris campaign says it will聽build on the success of the IRA, which, along with other initiatives, allowed the government to negotiate lower prices for 10聽widely used prescription medications.
This only applies to聽people on federal health insurance, but Harris aims to聽extend this to people with commercial health insurance.
Meanwhile, Trump proposed to聽make drug costs in the US the same as those paid by other high-income countries. Prescription drug prices are still at least twice as聽high in the US compared with聽other middle- and high-income countries, according to聽a聽2024 . Mulcahy says you can think of the two approaches like a chisel versus a聽sledgehammer.
Harris and Trump both want to lead the AI boom
Harris and Trump have some very聽different ideas for how the US聽should spur AI development while holding tech companies accountable聽鈥� but some policies would probably be the same regardless of who sits in the White聽House. 鈥淚 think that both administrations would still offer a聽lot of latitude to big tech companies and probably take a very light-touch approach,鈥� says at Yale University. 鈥淚t鈥檚 ingrained in the American ethos聽鈥� the wonders of the American innovator聽鈥� and so聽neither are going to really hobble tech companies with 鈥榚xcessive regulation鈥�.鈥�
The relatively hands-off approach corresponds with both聽Democratic and Republican political parties campaigning on聽tech dominance over China. During the debate, Harris framed investments in US technology as聽key to winning the race when it聽comes to AI and quantum computing. While she has been vice president, President Joe Biden has made only soft strides towards reining in the companies that build AI. He sought voluntary cooperation from tech companies to manage AI risks and issued an聽executive order to develop guidelines for testing and using聽AI聽systems.
Harris would probably continue these policies, but Trump has vowed to revoke Biden鈥檚 executive order, says at the Brookings Institution, a think tank聽in Washington DC.
鈥淭rump鈥檚 deregulatory policies allow for companies to do what they鈥檙e essentially doing now, but at greater scale,鈥� she says. 鈥淭here may be a greater velocity in the spread of AI, for good or for bad.鈥�
Hine says other proposed policies from Trump and Project 2025 could hamper government adoption of AI and limit AI researchers from immigrating to the US for work, a key part of US competitiveness in the industry. She also expects Trump to speed up the decoupling of US supply chains from China, even as US companies face challenges in becoming self鈥憇ufficient in semiconductor chip manufacturing. Meanwhile, Harris is far more likely than Trump to address the skyrocketing electricity demand and carbon footprints of data centres running AI models, says聽Turner Lee.
But one more Biden policy could continue regardless of who becomes president 鈥� the government鈥檚 lawsuits challenging the power Big Tech holds over online services. Members of both political parties have come together to 鈥渟upport antitrust enforcement against Big Tech鈥�, says Hine.
