In just a few days鈥� time, thousands of delegates from almost every country on Earth will arrive in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference.
The meeting is a chance for countries to come together and thrash out the international response to rising global temperatures, against a backdrop of record-breaking temperatures, devastating storms, flooding, heatwaves and droughts.
These climate summits, known as Conferences of the Parties (COPs), are notorious for being a world unto themselves, filled with technical jargon, self-important negotiators and line-by-line disputes over who should bear responsibility for rising emissions.
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But beyond the bluster, the stakes are very real. With global average temperatures expected to exceed 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels for the first time this year and , time is running out to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The summit鈥檚 Azeri hosts are under extreme pressure to deliver a successful outcome that can restore faith in the COP process and unlock the financial muscle needed to kick-start real-world emissions cuts.
Controversial hosts
Azerbaijan might seem a strange choice of host for a climate summit. Fossil fuels account for more than 90 per cent of the country鈥檚 total exports, 90 per cent of its electricity is generated by natural gas and its emissions reduction plan . Meanwhile, it is engaged in a tense conflict with its neighbours Armenia, and its authoritarian government restricts the work of media and civil society in the country.
But UN rules state this year鈥檚 summit was to be held in eastern Europe, and with Russia blocking European Union countries from hosting, Azerbaijan鈥檚 bid was voted through. Yet concerns remain around the country鈥檚 suitability to host, with the European Parliament in October calling for leaders attending COP29 to challenge the Azerbaijani government on its record.
鈥淭here鈥檚 been a lot of contention around Azerbaijans鈥檚 presidency,鈥� says at the UK think tank Chatham House. Successful COPs often depend heavily on the leadership of host countries, she points out. 鈥淕oing into a COP with that level of contention鈥� doesn鈥檛 bode well for its strong leadership,鈥� she says.
Finance challenge
COP29 is being billed as a 鈥渇inance COP鈥�, and top of the agenda is getting countries to agree to a climate finance target catchily termed the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). In essence, this is a commitment for rich countries to help poorer nations cut emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change in the form of grants, loans and private finance.
The new target will replace the $100 billion a year agreed by countries in 2009, a pledge that was finally met, two years late, in 2022. This time around, poorer countries want a dramatic step up in ambition, with a headline finance target in the region of $1 trillion starting in 2025.
But already a row is brewing over who pays into this finance pot. The $100 billion goal was delivered by so-called 鈥楢nnex II countries鈥�, those deemed 鈥渋ndustrialised鈥� by the UN. But this definition excludes nations such as the Gulf States and China, which have rapidly developed in the past three decades and are now major emitters.
The US and EU are among the parties arguing the 鈥渄onor base鈥� for UN climate finance should be expanded to cover major polluters, but that is a controversial proposal and likely to meet fierce opposition in the negotiating rooms. There are also suggestions that carbon taxes and levies on fossil fuel company profits could be leveraged to meet the NCQG.
By the end of the summit, the aim is to have the core metrics of the new finance goal 鈥� how much finance is being targeted and who pays 鈥� settled. But nations are currently far from any kind of consensus, according to , a former climate finance negotiator for the UK government, now at UK think tank E3G. 鈥淚t is quite concerning that so close to the COP itself, we have not seen a high-level political movement towards convergence on what the goal will look like,鈥� he told a meeting of reporters in October.
Rescuing Paris
At last year鈥檚 summit in Dubai, a was launched, linking COP28 host the United Arab Emirates聽with COP29 host Azerbaijan and COP30 host Brazil. The Troika鈥檚 mission, over the three meetings up to COP30, was to 鈥渃ourse correct鈥� the world鈥檚 journey to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Current climate plans, known in UN jargon as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), put the world on course for 2.6 to 3.1掳C of warming by the end of the century, well above the 1.5 to 2掳C goal of the Paris Agreement.
There is an opportunity to get back on track: by February 2025, all countries must submit new climate plans to the UN detailing how far they will cut emissions by 2035. But convincing countries to cut emissions faster requires money, which is why COP29 has been tasked with setting details of the new finance goal. 鈥淚f developing countries don鈥檛 get a good agreement on finance, they鈥檙e unlikely to produce strong, 1.5掳C-compliant NDCs,鈥� warns Townend. 鈥淪o you鈥檒l be going into COP30 with NDCs that don鈥檛 live up to the remit that gets us back on track for 1.5掳C.鈥�
The stakes could not be higher, she warns. 鈥淲hile this COP might be seen by some as a smaller, more technical COP, it really is about that enabling finance, without which everything falls apart.鈥�
Alongside a new finance goal, countries may also try to build momentum for stronger action by releasing their climate plans early at COP29. At least, campaigners hope that will be the case. 鈥淲e really do want to see major emitters, including the United States, countries from Europe, China if possible, come forward early and really signal what the level of ambition will be,鈥� says at the Union of Concerned 杏吧原创s, a US lobby group.
The fossil fuel question
Azerbaijan wants the focus of COP29 to be on climate finance. But the last four COP meetings have been dominated by debate over the need to phase out fossil fuel use in order to tackle climate change. This came to a head at last year鈥檚 summit in Dubai, where nations collectively agreed to 鈥渢ransition away from fossil fuels in energy systems鈥�.
Many campaigners would like to see this language strengthened. As COP president-designate, has the responsibility of crafting a political agreement at the end of the summit that pleases all parties. But as a former vice president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, there is doubt over how hard he will push to improve the ambition on phasing out fossil fuels.
There鈥檚 also a sense the political attention needed to deliver this kind of high-level signal is absent, with world leaders focused on the US election and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. 鈥淲ith the highly unstable geopolitics at the moment, with the conflicts happening in the Middle East and Ukraine and elsewhere, there is just what feels like quite limited political bandwidth for climate action,鈥� says at the Global Renewables Alliance, a trade association for renewable energy based in Brussels.
It means this year鈥檚 political agreement may not deliver any major advance on the fossil fuel transition, she says. Instead, the focus is likely to be on protecting progress to date. 鈥淲e need to protect the language that we got last year,鈥� she says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a consensus that we鈥檙e not going to be able to get something stronger, and people don鈥檛 want to reopen it because they鈥檙e worried about backsliding.鈥�
