Scientific agencies in other countries must prepare to take over as much of the key carbon dioxide monitoring services currently carried out by the US as possible, climate scientists are warning.
This monitoring could end next year under planned budget cuts, resulting in the loss of crucial data. 鈥淎t the moment I鈥檓 not aware of anyone saying, 鈥極kay, we can do it. We will take over鈥�,鈥� says at the University of Exeter in the UK. 鈥淚t has to be done.鈥�
Friedlingstein leads the , an international effort to quantify exactly how much CO鈧� is being emitted and how much is being taken up by the land and oceans 鈥� crucial factors for understanding Earth鈥檚 rising temperatures.
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This work relies heavily on the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is being targeted for budget cuts by the Trump administration. A proposes to eliminate the agency鈥檚 spending on climate and weather research and cut its full-time staff by more than 2000 people. It also proposes to shut down laboratories including Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, a key site for CO鈧� monitoring.
鈥淭he NOAA GML [Global Monitoring Laboratory] greenhouse gas programme is the backbone of global carbon observing, which serves many roles,鈥� says at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.
NOAA directly measures the level of gases such as CO鈧� at many sites and supports such monitoring including by calibrating measurements based on samples sent to it, says Friedlingstein.
The agency also assembles and analyses all the global data. This includes using the small differences in CO鈧� levels between sites, along with knowledge of atmospheric circulation, to work out CO鈧� flows.
鈥淣OAA is providing critical baseline data,鈥� says Keeling. 鈥淚f the NOAA effort is terminated, we also lose the ability to track flows of CO鈧� and other greenhouse gases reliably across the globe.鈥�
鈥淎ll of these things have to be replaced by other agencies,鈥� says Friedlingstein
Even if this happens, the loss of monitoring sites and replacement of NOAA鈥檚 records with others will cause problems. 鈥淟ong-term consistency here is the key,鈥� says Keeling. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 just jump from one index to another and still reliably resolve trends.鈥�
There is particular concern about the continuation of the monitoring at Mauna Loa that began in 1957 鈥� the longest continuous record of CO鈧� at a single site. NOAA assists the Scripps-led monitoring there.
鈥淲ithout NOAA involved, it will be difficult but not impossible to continue measurements nearby,鈥� says Keeling.
He is also worried about the Scripps-led monitoring at the South Pole. It currently depends on NOAA staff at the US station there. The station itself depends on the US National Science Foundation, whose funding is also under threat.
鈥淭he South Pole is by far the most important long-term station in the Southern Hemisphere, and it is as critical as Mauna Loa to establish a reliable long-term global average, as well as the evolving difference between the northern and southern hemispheres to track large-scale carbon flows,鈥� says Keeling.
CO鈧� levels can also be monitored by some satellites, says Friedlingstein, but they measure the CO鈧� in the entire column of air between the surface and the satellite, not just at the surface 鈥� so they aren鈥檛 a direct replacement.
Asked if it had any plans to replace what NOAA does, the European Union鈥檚 Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service directed New 杏吧原创 to contact the European Commission鈥檚 Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space (DEFIS). DEFIS didn鈥檛 respond by the deadline for this article.
