The planet-warming super El Ni帽o now developing will almost certainly be the strongest ever, breaking the record by an unprecedented margin.
Out of hundreds of simulations by 14 forecast models, 90 per cent predict the El Ni帽o will reach a sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific that hasn鈥檛 been seen in 150 years of observations, according to the California nonprofit Berkeley Earth. It is expected to peak at 3.6掳C above average, far above the 2.75掳C record set in 2015-16.
at Berkeley Earth says this is one of the few times a climate forecast has truly shocked him.
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鈥淓ven the median of all the models expects we beat the record by 0.8掳C,鈥� he said at a media briefing on 23 July. 鈥淚f this does end up occurring, it really would be record-shattering and unprecedented.鈥�
El Ni帽o happens when easterly winds weaken in the tropics, allowing water they鈥檝e pushed into the Western Pacific Warm Pool to wash back across toward the eastern Pacific. Rainfall shifts eastward, weakening easterly winds further in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Although it鈥檚 a natural cycle, it delivers a jolt of heat on top of 1.4掳C of global warming, setting off extreme weather around the world, according to Berkeley Earth.
Already, this El Ni帽o is revving up faster than any previous event. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific have reached 2.1掳C above average, vastly outpacing the 1.6掳C increase seen at this time of year during the 1997-98 El Ni帽o, the previous record-holder for speedy development. 聽
This 鈥渆xplosive onset鈥� has already put the event in very strong or 鈥渟uper鈥� El Ni帽o territory, only a month after it started. And once you consider that El Ni帽o doesn鈥檛 peak until late autumn or winter, it really does look like the world is facing a 鈥淕odzilla鈥� El Ni帽o, the name given to those that increase temperatures past a rise of 3掳C.
Within a few months, the huge swath of warm water across the Pacific will heat up the rest of the world. Global temperatures in 2027 are likely to reach 1.7掳C above the pre-industrial average, smashing the record for hottest year of 1.5掳C in 2024. The El Ni帽o is coming on so fast that there鈥檚 even a chance 2026 will break that global temperature record first, as some have predicted.
As a result, the 20-year temperature average will likely exceed 1.5掳C by 2029, failing the goal set by the Paris Agreement, said at Berkeley Earth in the briefing.
鈥淲e鈥檙e already over 1.4掳C, so there鈥檚 very little margin left,鈥� Rhode said.
Different regions will see different extreme weather. Densely populated southern China could experience heavy rainfall in the spring and summer, raising the risk of flooding on the Yangtze River, forecasters have . The 1997-98 super El Ni帽o caused flooding on the Yangtze that more than 3000 people.
The northeastern US tends to face drier conditions during El Ni帽o, while the southern US gets wetter, which can unleash mudslides in places like California.聽Australia tends to dry out, raising the threat of bushfires like those seen during the 鈥溾�� of 2018-19.
India, southern and central Africa and parts of central and South America all face drought risks, which could push up the price of commodities like rice, coffee and chocolate even in less-exposed countries like the UK.
鈥淲e might get lucky and have smaller reduction in rainfall in Africa or India, but generally 鈥� the damages scale with the strength of the El Ni帽o,鈥� said Hausfather.
Strong El Ni帽o events also cause harm to ecosystems, such as widespread coral bleaching, which is expected this year as well.
While some research suggests El Ni帽o events are getting stronger, other studies disagree. What is clear is that the impacts will get worse as global warming accelerates.
鈥淚t鈥檚 something we need to start preparing for today and make sure we have systems in place to deal with drought conditions,鈥� said Hausfather.
