Height of redundancy
Nils Erik Grande says he found a label on a liquid ginseng bottle simply
telling him to remove it before placing it in the microwave
(Feedback, 9 January).
This kind of thing is not exclusive to Norway. When my dad bought a
new toilet a while back, there was a fairly large clear plastic label stuck to
the back, the only label on it, saying in about 10 different languages: “Please
remove this label before use.”
We also couldn’t see any reason for it, as it wasn’t even covering anything
which needed to be exposed (or protected in transport). I think it’s something
along the lines of the three or so pages we usually get at the back of exam
papers just saying “Blank page”.
Cause for alarm
There’s no need for Jim Wallen to be “flummoxed” by the idea of one
particular death having had more than one avoidable cause
(Letters, 16 January, p 52).
In our Chinese tobacco studies, we pointed out that the ability of
smoking to cause death simply implies an increased probability that otherwise
similar people of a given age will die in the near future.
This definition of causality as increased probability is particularly
relevant for smokers who have died from tuberculosis, for whom infection with
the tubercle bacillus was obviously one cause, but death from tuberculosis might
not have occurred if the person had not also smoked. The definition is also
relevant for lung cancer.
Many smokers do not get lung cancer (so smoking is not a “sufficient cause”),
some nonsmokers do get lung cancer (so smoking is not a “necessary cause”), but
many smokers who get lung cancer would not have done so if they had not smoked
(so smoking is an “important cause”).
Also, since everybody eventually dies, the overall probability of death for
smokers and for nonsmokers is 100 per cent. Smokers, however, are more likely to
die before they reach old age鈥攁nd, on average, those killed by smoking at
between 35 and 69 years of age have lost about 20 to 25 years of life.
Grounded
It was slightly misleading of Paul Murdin to say that the British government
“spends 拢200 million a year on civilian space flight”
(Forum, 19 December 1998, p 99).
This implies that it spends 拢200 million to allow civilians
to fly in space. What he actually meant was that the government spends
拢200 million on civil space programmes鈥攔ather different.
This is not mere semantics. Back in the mid-1980s, when NASA formally invited
the European Space Agency to join the International Space Station programme,
Britain decided not to support any human space flight activities, although it
was a signatory to the ISS agreement. Britain, therefore, currently has no
funded role in the ISS.
An unfortunate side effect of this decision has been to effectively eliminate
any opportunity for a British citizen to become an astronaut (Helen Sharman was
funded by the Russians and Michael Foale has US citizenship). I say
“unfortunate” because, notwithstanding Charles Seife’s reservations concerning
the scientific value of the station (same issue, p 26), it is human space flight
activities that especially capture the imagination of the young.
And while the results of crystallography experiments may have been
disappointing so far, there is lots more good science, especially life science,
waiting to be done鈥攂y astronauts.
Making art
In suggesting that art need not have evolved in an intelligent culture, using
the example of autistic and dyslexic children who are nevertheless artistic
(Letters, 9 January, p 47),
Stan Hayward is making a fundamental error concerning the nature of cultures.
While such children may well have the potential to express their talent,
without help from others they would be unable to produce the materials, paper,
pens, crayons and so on to actually do so. In contrast, Palaeolithic people were
able to make relatively sophisticated artists’ materials and the light sources
needed to work deep in caves.
At sites such as Niaux in the Pyrenees, much of the art is to be found
several hundred metres underground. This would have necessitated a lengthy trip
for the artists while carrying their lights and their materials. It seems
unlikely that this would have been possible without a reasonable degree of
communication.
Another example of the technological sophistication and communication used by
these people can be seen at Lascaux in the Dordogne, where there is evidence of
the construction of scaffolding structures to enable the artists to reach high
up on the walls and ceiling of the cave.
Therefore no useful comparisons can be drawn between Palaeolithic artists and
modern children with learning difficulties. However, there is evidence in
several French caves of the presence of children: juvenile hand prints at Gargas
and footprints in the Reseau Clastres, Trois Fr猫res and Peche Merle. It
is possible that children played a greater part in the production of
Palaeolithic art than has previously been considered.
Diminishing circles
Accompanying your report on the Australian attempt to “circle the Earth” is a
map showing the proposed route
(This Week, 9 January, p 12).
Centred on the South Pole, the map shows that the track is entirely in the
southern hemisphere. So this, like the other recent balloon attempts鈥攁ll
entirely in the northern hemisphere鈥攃an hardly seriously be described as a
circumnavigation.
If these count as circumnavigations, what is there to prevent me sticking a
pole into the ground anywhere on Earth, strolling round it at a radius of a yard
or two and then claiming to have made a circumnavigation of the Earth?
Hype and herpes
Your article on herpes implies that it is only American physicians and
pharmaceuticals companies who are concerned about the public health implications
of an increase in genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection
(This Week, 12 December 1998, p 24).
In contrast, many clinicians and public health specialists
are concerned, but opinions are divided about what action will be cost-effective
in countering this trend.
The key observation, briefly quoted in the article, is that genital
ulceration promotes the transmission of HIV. Genital HSV infection has emerged
as the most common cause of genital ulceration in the developed and developing
worlds, with a reduction in bacterial causes.
The value of serological testing to improve diagnosis for genital HSV
infection is that it will enable patients to be counselled, and receive
antiviral therapy if appropriate. Furthermore, as part of the development of
effective vaccines to prevent HSV infection, a serology test will be essential
to define whom the vaccine should be targeted towards (those uninfected by
HSV-2).
Your article suggests that pharmaceutical companies were promoting mass
testing even though only a minority of infected individuals will develop
symptoms. I was invited by the organisers of the International Herpes Management
Forum meeting to speak and, along with other speakers, argued that there are no
data to support the introduction of unselected mass testing at present and that
it is essential that any patient being tested is first properly counselled as to
the pros and cons of receiving a test result.
I and others also argued that a positive HSV-2 antibody test must not lead
automatically to a prescription for an antiviral therapy, as there are no data
to suggest that the use of antivirals reduces the sexual transmission of genital
herpes.
You are correct in saying that such meetings are usually sponsored by
pharmaceuticals companies. But to accuse them of trying to sell more drugs
undermines the value of the informed debate which takes place at such meetings,
and misses the point that the conclusion of the debate may well be contrary to
the supposed desires of the companies.
Alien cannibals
No sooner have I learnt how truly special our Solar System is
(This Week, 9 January, p 15),
than I read on the same page of yet another lunatic attempt to contact aliens.
Everything we know about the evolution of life on Earth and our own history
suggests that advertising our presence in space is suicidal folly. Witness the
colonisation of the Americas, Africa and Australia. European colonists did not
seek a meaningful dialogue with the native inhabitants, but seized their habitat
through conquest, enslavement and genocide.
This is how we treat our own species. Aliens, who if they are like us will be
carnivorous, shall no doubt regard us simply as another species of animal
occupying one of a few life-supporting worlds.
Furthermore, they cannot but recognise that we pose a mortal threat to them,
since we have a degree of technological advancement and Encounter 2001’s
transmissions prove that we are mad. Surely the possible benefit of some
interesting conversations with friendly aliens is outweighed by the greater risk
of the extinction of our descendants in 20 000 years’ time?
The prudent course of action is obvious: we must maintain radio silence by
dampening down all emissions, including television and radio broadcasts. While
listening out for signs of emergent life forms nearby, we may thus buy ourselves
time to acquire sufficient technological advancement to overwhelm them if they
are hostile. This, if there are aliens in the constellation Hercules, may be
what they are doing.
Robot terror
You try to reassure us that even though the Robokoneko project relies on vast
neural networks to replicate complex biological behaviour through processes
analogous to cell mutation, there is no risk of their developing unwanted,
dangerous characteristics
(Editorial, 9 January, p 3).
The argument is that we have control over how the machine programs itself.
But if the project succeeds, precisely the same issues would arise as in
nature鈥攗ncontrolled mutations and unforeseen developments of the network.
Even if these do not happen naturally then bugs and mistakes in the wiring, and
minor shorts and wire-crossings, will inevitably occur that do not halt the
network, but alter it.
If Robokoneko can really mimic nature it will be equally uncontrollable.
Fortunately, it almost certainly can’t.
Letter
Your editorial asks: “Do we really have to start worrying about the
appearance of artilects, artificial intellects with terrifying intelligence?”
The answer is surely “yes”鈥攏ot “no”, as in your naive vision of “highly
intelligent angels”.
The development of these artilects, if they prove to be of use, will be
driven by the military. A new arms race is likely to start, with malevolent
artilects emerging. Kevin Warwick, a cybernetician at Reading University,
foresees a future in which humans are culled and enslaved by robots.
The Institute for Social Inventions is circulating a petition for the
signatures of scientists, particularly cyberneticians, and others, for
submission to relevant political and scientific bodies. It is worded as
follows:
“In view of the likelihood that early in the next millennium computers and
robots will be developed with a capacity and complexity greater than that of the
human brain, and with the potential to act malevolently towards humans, we, the
undersigned, call on politicians and scientific associations to establish an
international commission to monitor and control the development of artificial
intelligence systems.”