Shifting thoughts
I completely concur with Peter Ayton’s observations on our apparent inability
to change our minds
(25 November 2000, p 51).
The evidence is easy to come by.
What is surprising鈥攐r is it?鈥攊s that this phenomenon is totally
ignored by the majority of people. Even when I have actually managed to point it
out to others, they do not seem to share the fear this generates in
me鈥攖hat as a result, nearly all attempts at improving our lot are bound to
fail.
Being stuck in an opinion or frame of mind鈥攆or which scientists are
also renowned (remember Einstein)鈥攃an be regarded as an inevitable
consequence of having any mental stability at all. But as studies of problem
solving show, being stuck in this way means that people will try over and over
again to apply a “solution” that does not work. In the context of our urgent
global problems, it seems to me that finding ways of dealing with “stuckness”
are of primary importance. To this end I came up with four solutions:
1. Shift the entrenched argument or opinion bit by bit, for example, by
feeding it back in very slightly altered form over an extended period, so that
it completely changes without being noticed.
2. One person could cultivate more than one point of view, which would render
him or her sensitive to these small shifts in the information provided.
3. Make not agreeing on a point such a virtue that it becomes interesting in
its own right, so the idea that there are a great number of different ways of
not agreeing spreads.
4. Evolve fancy new models of the “quantum coupling” of separate brains so
that there is a shift of interest from what opinions are about to how we
exchange them . . .
Letter
I cannot let Ayton’s twisting of grammar prevail without protest. He cites
psychologist Peter Wason’s claim that the sentence “No head injury is too
trivial to be ignored” means the opposite of the “common sense” interpretation
of most people.
He must be thinking of the paradigm “No man is too poor to own a car” which
equates with “Every man has enough money to own a car”. On this reading, Wason’s
sentence might mean “Every head injury is important enough to be ignored.” But
that is surely contradictory, for if a head injury is important enough, would it
be ignored?
I read the sentence as elliptic鈥攊n other words, it means, “No head
injury is so trivial that it can/should be ignored,” and I suspect that is most
people’s reading. Context is vital to the meaning of words.
Against the flow
“Neptune’s net”
(16 December, p 31)
states that when the California Current
encounters southward-flowing Arctic water, there is upwelling near the Juan de
Fuca plate. But when surface currents converge, there is generally downwelling
(or an accelerated flow in a third direction), because only then can an
accumulation of water be avoided.
In fact, the California Current flows south, not north. It is part of the
North Pacific gyre, and a continuation of the Aleutian Current. Because of the
Ekman effect, the flow is deflected to the west, away from the coast. This
results in divergence, and brings nutrient-rich water up from intermediate
depths.
The situation of the California Current is precisely comparable to the Canary
Current in the North Atlantic, the Benguela Current in the South Atlantic, and
the Peru (or Humboldt) Current in the South Pacific. All cause upwelling along
the coast and form the source of important fisheries. The Peru Current, of
course, is also involved in the El Ni帽o southern oscillation events.
Loads of energy
I found your appraisal of the potential for small-scale distributed power production
(18 November 2000, p 16)
thoughtful and stimulating, but I have a few corrections.
You say that I think “most of our electricity will come from millions of
microturbines, solar panels and, most importantly, hydrogen-powered fuel cells”.
While I believe all of these sources may contribute usefully to future
electricity production, they will only be part of a larger portfolio of
centralised and distributed power generation capabilities needed to meet growing
demands. You go on to quote me as stating, in effect, that home microgeneration
will be much cheaper than using the power grid. There are likely to be
situations where that is true, depending on the relative cost of natural gas,
but I did not suggest that it would be the predominant case.
I believe that meeting future demand will require the wise development and
deployment of an array of innovative power-generation, delivery and end-use
technologies鈥攂oth small and large.
Fish vs mozzies
After perusing your piece on the relationship between perspiration and mosquitoes
(11 November 2000, p 24),
I recalled an experience my wife and I had some years ago while travelling with a
party of a dozen people, spending a week near Hudson Bay in northern Canada.
We had been advised by a Canadian friend to take fish oil capsules for two
weeks before the trip so that our bodies would acquire a mild fishy odour. This,
he said, would repel flies and mosquitoes. We went even further, taking the oil
throughout the trip.
Most of our party was plagued by insects, but we escaped. I can recall noting
that as insects approached my arm they would veer away without landing on
it.
I understand that the cod liver oil should be of the unrefined variety rather
than the highly refined version that lacks the fishy smell. Our Canadian friend
said people living in northern Canada tend to eat lots of fish, and this might
explain why they manage to avoid being bitten.
In the deep
I was greatly disappointed by the misconceptions in your piece on mine tailings
(11 November 2000, p 46).
It states, for example, that the Batu Hijau mine discharges tailings into a
local bay. This is not true. We specified an outfall 3 kilometres long that
would discharge at a depth of 125 metres. The discharge point was sited at this
point to allow the negatively buoyant slurry to flow as a turbidity current
under water, down steep slopes into a canyon and onward to depths exceeding 3000
metres. We applied a numerical model to predict the flow, deposition and
resuspension of tailings. The measurements to date support the predictions of
the model.
Most scientists agree that submarine tailings disposal is environmentally
superior to storage on land.
Brains and bevvies
So, moderate drinkers have a higher IQ than teetotallers
(9 December 2000, p 10).
What surprised me was that the researchers at Japan’s National Institute
for Longevity Sciences, as well as your reporter Peter Hadfield, failed to
mention the most obvious reason for their findings: intelligent people enjoy a
little drinking now and then.
Peter Hadfield writes: The conclusion of the researchers is not that moderate
drinking “makes” you more intelligent, but that it seems to impede the
deterioration of intelligence with age. I suggested to the researchers that
moderate drinkers are more socially outgoing, and that joie de vivre prevents
their brains from ossifying. The researchers admitted the possibility, so Boffi
makes a serious point.
Black whole
Someone has cleverly weighed the Universe at last
(16 December 2000, p 26).
Last time I tried, I couldn’t get it to stay on the weighbridge. It just kept
floating away. I take it that what you really meant was that someone has
determined its mass.
Recently, I estimated the mass. I was out by a factor of 2. Sorry about that.
Using the latest determination, if we were to squeeze all of that mass into a
black hole, the Schwarzschild radius of the hole (the distance from its centre
to its effective edge) would be about 15.6 billion light years. The latest
thinking puts the age of the Universe at about 15 billion years. Not long ago,
therefore鈥攁nd possibly still鈥攖he Universe was inside a black
hole.
The matter inside a black hole collapses to a singularity. The Universe is
supposed to have been expanding ever since the big bang. Will someone please
explain this flat contradiction?
Due to an editing error, we did indeed say “weight” on page 29, when of
course we meant “mass”. The person responsible has been taken out and
蝉丑辞迟鈥抬诲
Low-tech teeth
I was intrigued by Tam Dalyell’s comments on the fitting of silicon chips in
false teeth to help coroners identify the dead
(16 December 2000, p 53).
But I could not help wondering if the problem might be solved more simply by having
the owner’s name engraved on the plate, either by the manufacturer or the
dentist. Or is this too low-tech for 21st-century dentures?
Making space a safer place
Space may be the final frontier, but the impact of its use and exploration
back on Earth is immense. For instance, people everywhere should be able to live
without fear of being killed by a piece of hardware from a disintegrating
spacecraft that has missed its splash zone in the ocean. Reports of the imminent
demise of Mir are only the latest example of this kind of threat. And it is
conceivable that spacecraft could be launched on intersecting trajectories, or
that discord could arise over claims for the rights to geostationary positions
for satellites. Countries and their space agencies must be held responsible for
the actions and fates of their spacecraft.
What we urgently need is a high-profile international agency that will
oversee the exploration and development of space. Without it, we will never
develop a structured and integrated approach to how we use space. Accusations,
prejudice and chaos will proliferate on an even greater scale than we’ve seen so
far.
All countries intending to launch a spacecraft should be required to lodge a
bond with this agency. The agency would then administer the bond and ensure that
at the end of its working life, each spacecraft is safely retrieved, refitted or
sent into solar orbit rather than spiralling down to Earth.
Establishing a global space agency would initially be the responsibility of
countries with space programmes, but ultimately all responsible citizens should
be prepared to join in this cause.