China is on target to meet or exceed an ambitious renewable energy goal, but this will not be enough to stem runaway carbon dioxide emissions, according to a pair of recent reports.
In September, Chinese officials announced plans to nearly double the proportion of renewables in its overall energy mix 鈥� from 8% in 2006 to 15% in 2020.
鈥淚 think the targets are very realistic or even conservative based on what they have done thus far,鈥� says Eric Martinot, lead author of a Worldwatch Institute study on the future of renewables in China.
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The report, released late on Wednesday, predicts China鈥檚 renewable-energy capacity will more than triple by 2020. Yet over the same period, its energy demands will nearly double, meaning the actual increase in the proportion of renewables used is expected to be 7%.
This year China will invest more than $10 billion in additional renewable power capacity, including wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, and biofuels. This is twice the amount invested by the US in 2006. Only Germany is investing more 鈥� over $11 billion in 2006.
Runaway emissions
The intensive investments may have as much to do with energy security as environmental protection. 鈥淭he more they have to spend on oil, the more they are going to invest in renewables,鈥� Martinot, a visiting scholar at the Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Center in Beijing, says.
In March, the European Union, which currently gets about 7% of its energy from renewable sources, set a target to increase this to 20% by 2020. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US obtained 4.2% of its primary energy from renewables in 2004, and it has not set any goals for future increases.
The push for clean renewable energy, however, is not enough to stem the runaway increases in carbon dioxide emissions from China and other rapidly developing countries, according to the IEA.
鈥淚f we do not change our current policies we could end up with a 6 掳C increase in our planet鈥檚 temperature by the end of the century,鈥� says IEA chief economist Fatih Birol.
Action needed
The IEA鈥檚 report predicts demand for coal will increase by 73% between 2005 and 2030, with four-fifths of this coal being burnt in China and India. At the same time, global carbon dioxide levels will rise by 57%, with two-thirds of the increase shared by the US, China, India, and Russia.
鈥淚f China reaches its 15% goal, this is very good news,鈥� says Birol, the lead author of the IEA report. 鈥淏ut they also have to improve their energy efficiency, and they have to act now.鈥�
That report concludes that 鈥渆xceptionally quick and vigorous policy action鈥� and 鈥渦nprecedented technological advances鈥� will need to be made by all countries, not just China and India, if carbon dioxide emissions are to be reduced in any meaningful way.
Read our special report on China.
Energy and Fuels 鈥� Learn more about the looming energy crisis in our comprehensive special report.
