Iran鈥檚 first satellite launch aboard a home-grown rocket last week has left observers puzzled over just how it was done. Was the satellite launched by a feeble rocket pushed to its limits, or has Iran鈥檚 secretive space programme managed to develop a far more powerful launch vehicle without anyone noticing? The answer will affect how soon the country might achieve its stated goal of sending humans into space.
Iran launched its satellite 鈥� called Omid, or 鈥淗ope鈥� 鈥� on 2 February. According to Iranian media, it is a 40-centimetre cube weighing 25-kilograms, and is equipped with radio transmitters.
Foreign tracking stations and amateur sky watchers have been following the craft鈥檚 relatively , which is expected to decay over weeks or months due to atmospheric drag.
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At first, it was thought that the launch vehicle, called Safir-2, was derived from relatively feeble missiles that burn ambient-temperature liquid fuel, which Iran was already known to have.
Two of these missiles stacked one on top of the other could boost a third, small, solid-fuel rocket that could take a lightweight payload like Omid to orbit.
Two stages
But evidence has begun to emerge that the rocket might be more powerful than this. Amateur observers report that the last stage of the rocket, which is also in orbit, is much brighter than the satellite itself, suggesting it is too large to be the third stage of a relatively modest rocket.
Geoffrey Forden of MIT, who specialises in the analysis of foreign countries鈥� launch capabilities, is one of those now , with a second stage that was much more powerful than anything Iran was known to possess. This would be possible using a cryogenic fuel system involving liquid oxygen.
If true, this would have important implications for Iran鈥檚 ambition to launch astronauts into space, something Reza Taghipour, head of Iran鈥檚 Aerospace Industries Organization, has said the country hopes to do before 2021.
Suborbital flights
鈥淚f they used three stages, there鈥檚 no way they鈥檙e going to be getting a man to space anytime soon,鈥� Forden says. 鈥淚f it鈥檚 two stages, then maybe they could have suborbital flights fairly soon.鈥�
Ongoing tracking of the final stage鈥檚 orbit should help to provide an answer. That鈥檚 because the speed of the object鈥檚 drop due to atmospheric drag will provide clues as to its size.
Either way, the launch has heightened concern among those nations that suspect Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons.
Military concerns
A rocket that can put a few dozen kilograms in orbit can also deliver a few hundred kilograms 鈥� the mass of a nuclear warhead 鈥� as far as western Europe. Iran says its satellite launch was for peaceful purposes.
鈥淚t would be very difficult for the spacefaring nations to say that Iran doesn鈥檛 have a sovereign right for space launch capabilities,鈥� says Joan Johnson-Freese of the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island.
鈥淭hey have a very legitimate reason for wanting to be able to launch their own satellites for both economic and prestige reasons, but it also gives them an additional military capability,鈥� she told New 杏吧原创. 鈥淭he dual-use aspect really puts you in a dilemma.鈥�
