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In the aftermath of 11 September 2001, most people in the US believed that they or their families were highly likely to become victims of terrorist attacks. 鈥淲hich is just off the charts crazy when you think about it for even a minute,鈥� says , an author and risk consultant based in Canada. Instead of boarding planes, people in the US got in their cars. , the annual death toll on the road was on average 1100 higher than it had been in the five preceding years.

We are, in general, appalling at assessing risk: driving is inherently riskier than flying, terrorists or no terrorists. We also underestimate our chance of divorce, and spend more than is rational on lottery tickets and less than is rational on climate change. We fear our kids being abducted, so drive them to school, ignoring the greater risks that poses to their health and well-being.

How to do better? First, switch off your gut. Psychologists characterise our risk problem as a clash between system 1 and system 2 thinking. System 1 is the product of evolved biases shaped over thousands of years. 鈥淚f you saw a shadow in the grass and it was a lion and you lived to tell the tale, you鈥檇 make sure to run the next time you saw a shadow in the grass,鈥� says Gardner.

This inbuilt fear factory is highly susceptible to immediate experience, vivid images and personal stories. Security companies, political campaigns, tabloid newspapers and ad agencies prey on it. System 1 is good at catastrophic risk, but less good at risks that build up slowly over time 鈥� hence our lassitude in the face of climate change or our expanding waistlines.

So when your risk judgement is motivated by fear, stop and think: what other, less obvious risks might I be missing? This amounts to engaging the more rigorous, analytical system 2. People who deal with probability and risk professionally have been found to use system 2 more, among them bookies, professional card players 鈥� and weather forecasters. 鈥淢eteorologists get a bad rap,鈥� says Gardner, 鈥渂ut they tend to be highly calibrated, unlike most of us.鈥�

鈥淲e spend more than is rational on lottery tickets and less on climate change鈥�

These people receive precise, near-immediate feedback about their predictions 鈥� abuse for a false weather forecast, or a crucial card trick lost 鈥� which helps them constantly recalibrate their risk thermometer. That鈥檚 something we can all do. 鈥淐hoose something specific you want to improve your risk intelligence for,鈥� says , a risk researcher. 鈥淲hat time will your spouse be home tonight? Make bets with yourself. Were you right? Keep track.鈥�

That sounds trivial in the home, but it鈥檚 crucial in business. Part of the problem in the run-up to the financial collapse of 2008 was that individuals were no longer accountable for their own actions, says , who studies organisational behaviour at City University of London. 鈥淎t banks, there was no direct relationship between what you did and the outcome,鈥� says Spicer. 鈥淭hat produced irrational decisions.鈥�

There鈥檚 one feature you see over and over in people with good risk intelligence, says Gardner. 鈥淚 think it wouldn鈥檛 be too grandiose to call it the universal trait of risk intelligence 鈥� humility鈥�. The world is complex 鈥� be humble about what you know, and you鈥檒l come out better.

This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淵ou are鈥� scared鈥�