The United Nations COP26 climate summit, which runs from 31 October to 12 November in Glasgow, UK, has been described as a 鈥渢urning point for humanity鈥� and 鈥渢he most consequential summit鈥� ever鈥�.
Delayed due to the covid-19 pandemic, the meeting is by far the most important gathering on climate change since nearly 200 countries adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015. Where the Paris meeting鈥檚 job was to forge a new global treaty on curbing global warming, the task in Glasgow is to ensure that action is being delivered.
The pandemic meant vital in-person diplomacy to lay the groundwork for the summit was聽largely replaced by virtual meetings. Meanwhile, unequal access to covid-19 vaccines and the聽inequity around delegates鈥� capacity to be in Glasgow has heightened old tensions between聽high- and low-income countries that have dogged past international climate summits.
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But it would be wrong to think that everything was rosy in 2015 and terrible now. 鈥淢y memory, but human memory in general, is pathetically short,鈥� says Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of UN Climate Change. 鈥淲e look back at Paris in 2015 and assume everything was already ironed out.鈥� That wasn鈥檛 the case.
There is no single official goal for Glasgow鈥檚 outcome, but as hosts, COP26 president and the UK government have framed the meeting鈥檚 purpose as 鈥渒eeping 1.5掳C alive鈥�, a reference to the toughest of the Paris Agreement鈥檚 targets for limiting warming to less than 1.5掳C above pre-industrial levels.
The main way of measuring that is the 鈥渆missions gap鈥�. This is the chasm between what nations have pledged in their climate plans 鈥� known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) 鈥� and what is needed to have a chance of staying under 1.5掳C of warming.
New plans in the past year from the US and others narrowed the gap by 3.9 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. But global annual emissions still need to be , a decrease equivalent to roughly half annual emissions now. Even new plans by China and India, which are hoped for in the coming days, have no hope of closing that.
Delegates will need to include something extra to show that the goal could still be met later. One idea is to make the world鈥檚 warming goal unambiguously about 1.5掳C, rather than the Paris Agreement鈥檚 fudge of 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C and to 鈥減ursue efforts鈥� for 1.5掳C. Another is a commitment to come back every year with new and better NDCs instead of once every five years, as was agreed in Paris. A faster 鈥渞atchet mechanism鈥� like that could feasibly let the 1.5掳C target be met, but only if leaders then delivered stronger plans each year. Even the idea of that faster timetable will 鈥渂e bitterly resisted鈥� by some countries, says a veteran of international climate talks.
Another major issue for the summit to resolve is getting enough rich nations to fulfil their promises of climate finance to poorer ones for mitigating and adapting to a warmer world. A target of delivering $100 billion of mitigation a year by 2020 was missed by around $20 billion, and now the race is on to meet that goal before COP26 starts. Failure to do so will seriously damage trust between high- and low-income countries, a precious commodity at a meeting based on consensus, says at the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh.
COP26 attendees don鈥檛 have to thrash out a new treaty, but the meeting does have a formal element through which details on how countries tackle climate change in the coming years will be negotiated. This will happen out of public sight as delegates try to agree on an unfinished 鈥淧aris rulebook鈥�, which includes vital rules on carbon-trading markets, transparency about nations鈥� emissions cuts and common time frames for future NDCs.
Away from those negotiations will be the colourful side of COP26, where celebrities, business leaders and members of civil society from around the world congregate at the conference centre to press their issues, network and protest.
The first two main days of the summit will be dominated by the 100-plus heads of state who will give speeches in person, and others who join virtually. Expect those speeches to trumpet past progress and, in a few cases, announce new targets or policies.
The day after the speeches will focus on finance, which could see a recycling of old news such as to stop funding coal power beyond its borders, but the hope is for new announcements on financiers cutting support for fossil fuels. Other days focus on key thematic issues, such as nature on 6 November and adaptation 鈥� measures to cope with the effects of climate change like rising seas and more extreme weather 鈥� on 8 November.
Officially, the meeting draws to a close on 12 November. An overarching conclusion is expected to be agreed, but what that contains will be the test of whether COP26 鈥渒ept 1.5掳C alive鈥�.
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