It has been a good first week for COP26. The start of the climate summit in Glasgow, UK, has been blessed by glitzy speeches, shiny deals聽and little public bickering.
But how good? We have already had three assessments of what all the commitments add up to 鈥� from a team at the University of Melbourne in Australia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the UN鈥檚 own climate body.
The first two said we are now on target for a 1.9掳C and a 1.8掳C world by the end of the century, respectively, far closer than before to the Paris deal鈥檚 goals of 鈥渨ell below鈥� 2掳C and to 鈥減ursue efforts鈥� for 1.5掳C. Yet the UN still sees global annual emissions up around 14 per cent by 2030 against 2010 levels, which a UN official says puts us 鈥渃lose鈥� to 2.7掳C. And we know that .
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The sunnier views assume net-zero carbon emissions goals for 2050, 2060 and 2070 are acted on, and also account for other deals announced this week, including India鈥檚 promises on Monday. Simon Lewis at the University of Leeds in the UK says the IEA analysis is flawed because it assumes countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia will meet their net-zero goals when it is unlikely they will. 鈥淚t鈥檚 based on very optimistic assumptions,鈥� says Claire Fyson of the non-profit organisation Climate Analytics.
This debate over how much COP26 pledges have shifted the temperature dial will rumble on in coming days. It is clear there has been concrete progress, but it is also clear we aren鈥檛 on track for 1.5掳C yet. John Kerry, the US climate envoy, said of the analyses: 鈥淟et me emphasise as strongly as I can: job not done.鈥�
Despite the big headlines this week, COP26 is only really getting started. Away from the pageantry of world leaders鈥� speeches and press conferences, work is under way on the summit鈥檚 core tasks.
The first of those is a negotiated text for the outcome of the summit, due to be released next Friday with the arcane-sounding name 1/CP.26. Unlike many of the announcements this week, this text has largely not been agreed in advance, but depends on agreement between the nearly 200 governments represented in Glasgow. Some countries are already pressing for it to include a commitment to revisiting governments鈥� climate plans sooner than 2025, as is currently planned.
The second element being negotiated is the small print that couldn鈥檛 be agreed in time for the Paris Agreement in 2015 and at subsequent meetings (the so-called Paris rule book). It includes rules on carbon markets, time frames for climate plans and transparency. They are dry, but vital.
As Tim Lord at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has pointed out, the success of COP26 shouldn鈥檛 be judged 鈥渆ither/or鈥� on the shiny deals or these negotiations. 鈥淧ositive announcements create helpful momentum for the negotiations,鈥� .
The mood music on the negotiations has been positive. UK education secretary Nadhim Zahawi tells New 杏吧原创 it is 鈥渁ll good so far鈥�. The European Union鈥檚 top climate negotiator Jacob Werksman that there is strong political will to agree on the rule book. Sonam Wangi of a coalition of 46 nations, the Least Developed Countries, said leaders鈥� speeches had given the summit impetus. Kerry was extremely bullish. 鈥淲e鈥檝e come into this COP with much greater energy and focus than any time before,鈥� he said today.
Yet there are some cracks beginning to show on the glossy surface. COP26 president Alok Sharma yesterday acknowledged challenges and tensions in the negotiations. Large sections of the texts on the Paris rules . And Indonesia seemed to row back on a deal announced this week to end deforestation by 2030, .
Delegates get a bit of a break this weekend, though Sharma wants some negotiators in tomorrow evening for a stocktake. Going into week two with a 鈥渓arge number鈥� of issues unresolved isn鈥檛 possible, . Sharma also laid out an ideal vision of how he sees next week panning out, with 鈥渘ear-final鈥� negotiated texts presented on Wednesday evening and the summit finishing on time next Friday.
Given the precedent of past climate summits to run a day or two late, that seems optimistic. But if week two of COP26 goes as well as week one, he may yet get his wish.
Additional reporting by Graham Lawton.
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