This year will be remembered for many pioneering events, from the first private landing on the moon (see 鈥淪pace was for sale in 2024 as private missions led by Elon Musk boomed鈥�) to the first pig kidney transplants in living humans. Unfortunately, another, darker first looms large over 2024: although the numbers won鈥檛 be officially confirmed until next month, it is exceedingly likely that this year was the first to cross the totemic climate target of 1.5掳C of global warming (see 鈥淐limate chaos accelerated in 2024 as we hit 1.5掳C for the first time鈥�).
Let鈥檚 be clear on exactly what this means. It isn鈥檛 a breach of the world鈥檚 most important climate treaty, the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which nations pledged to limit long-term temperature rises to below 1.5掳C, as this figure is generally considered to refer to a 20-year average. It also isn鈥檛 a sign that the world is doomed and that we should give up all hope of combating climate change, because every fraction of a degree that we keep temperatures down will still improve the lives of billions of people versus not doing so. But it is, inarguably, a global failure that warming has hit this level, even if only for one year (so far).
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Breaching 1.5掳C also comes as the world enters a new, uncertain phase of climate change. As we have reported throughout the year, the extreme warming of 2024 (matched only by 2023) has seen scientists scrambling to understand what is going on, from growing concerns over changes in key ocean currents to unexplained levels of Antarctic sea ice loss.
Going into a new year with such uncertainty, it is hard not to feel pessimistic, but that might not be a bad thing. Next year will mark 10 years since the Paris Agreement came into force, and even at the time, it was clear the 1.5掳C target was pushing at the limit of what was achievable. As we wrote in our end of year leader at the time: 鈥淎s a call to action, it is quixotic: its aspiration of a 1.5掳C cap on global warming seems almost totally unachievable.鈥� Indeed, remaking the modern world to halt greenhouse gas emissions and reach net zero is the most ambitious goal humanity has ever set itself.
Pessimism doesn't make for good photo ops. It asks 'what if we fail?' and 'what if we are wrong?'
Such ambition is essential given the scale of the challenge facing us, yet it isn鈥檛 enough. Setting ambitious, optimistic goals like the Paris Agreement is the easy part, where politicians get to line up in photos, smile and shake hands. It feels warm and fuzzy.
But to achieve such goals, pessimism must rule. Pessimism doesn鈥檛 make for good photo ops. It asks 鈥渨hat if we fail?鈥� and 鈥渨hat if we are wrong?鈥� 鈥� questions that, if they are to be tackled, involve grappling with the deep uncertainties of our green transition, whether technological, social or economic. Doing otherwise is a recipe for failure.
There are lessons to be learned from 2024鈥檚 successes. Space engineers and surgeons alike default to an assumption of error, given the complexities of landing on the moon or performing intricate operations. To mitigate against this, they use a simple tool: the humble checklist. By identifying points of failure and taking steps to avoid them, the odds of success become much greater.
It wouldn鈥檛 make much sense to have a 鈥渃limate checklist鈥�, given we are talking about an ongoing global process rather than a single operation or space mission, but the underlying ethos still applies. One big point of failure is the annual UN climate talks. At the 29th such COP summit, in Azerbaijan this year, the hosts praised fossil fuels as a 鈥済ift of God鈥�.
COP30, which is due to be held in Bel茅m, Brazil, next November, offers an opportunity for an attitude reset. Brazilian President Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva is already making noises in that direction, promising a 鈥渢urnaround COP鈥�, but can he deliver? Perhaps the strongest message he could send would be to take to the stage and publicly admit the failure of the COP process to date, flanked by unsmiling world leaders with a clear plan to do better. Don鈥檛 bet on Santa delivering that wish, though.
Some contrition and pessimism could also help with another problem that has been quietly bubbling up during 2024: the looming threat of a bird flu pandemic (see 鈥淏ird flu suddenly got serious in 2024, infecting dozens of people鈥�). The H5N1 virus has spread through US dairy herds, with minimal efforts at surveillance and mitigation from US health officials. As a result, the number of human infections there has also grown, to more than 50 as we went to press.
The virus isn鈥檛 yet well adapted to people and, so far, there has been no known human-to-human transmission, but each new infection increases the chances that a random mutation will change that. Optimistically rolling the dice and hoping for double sixes doesn鈥檛 a good health policy make. In an ideal world, the US would already be planning for a possible pandemic, with fingers crossed that it never comes to pass. With the incoming president, Donald Trump, favouring the vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr as the secretary of health and human services, we don鈥檛 live in an ideal world, meaning that other countries should be making their own plans. This is the only rational response to uncertainty.
Clearly, all this pessimism isn鈥檛 particularly in the holiday spirit. Be assured, however, that throughout this double issue of New 杏吧原创 lies a world of festive treats, from the science of believing in Santa (see 鈥淏elieving in Santa Claus doesn鈥檛 make children act nicer at Christmas鈥�) to the quest for the world鈥檚 largest snowflake (see 鈥淗ow a plan to make the world鈥檚 largest snowflake was humbled by nature鈥�).
As for next year, raise a glass 鈥� both half-empty and half-full 鈥� to the researchers and companies developing new ways to tackle climate change, be it sucking carbon dioxide from the air or genetically remaking our food to be greener (of which you can read more in our 2025 preview next issue), and hope that the uncertainty thrown up by this year鈥檚 climate news can, and will, be a catalyst for change.
